The avocado market enters a phase of stability as expectations for Mexico grow

After weeks of various movements, the key issues of this week could be summarized under the name of "stability and expectations," because it is the situation that best describes the two largest avocado markets: the United States and Europe.

This stability has been evident in both volumes and prices. Just a few days ago, the United States experienced turbulence due to an unexpected price surge. However, it was a brief contingency, and the market has now returned to normal, with the subsequent decline following that unusual event.

Avocado market in the United States: price and volume stability

Meanwhile, in Europe, prices remain relatively low, in a predictable scenario, due to the growth in the volume of fruit that is entering, mainly from Peru, which at this time makes its leadership in market share felt.

On the expectations front, many are wondering what will happen in the coming weeks, especially those involved in the North American market, where the start of the new Mexican harvest is being closely watched, in terms of the harvest pace, volume, and, especially, its official start. It's worth remembering that the regular harvest begins in July, but some crops are already starting to produce in June, so the transition from the old to the new fruit is already underway.

New Mexican crop generates excitement in the market

This transition period will last between four and six weeks, so the expectation is to see how the market will react to this new harvest, considering it will have to compete with arrivals from Peru and local Californian fruit, which are currently very present in the US market. Therefore, it can be projected that, as long as this scenario persists, especially with the strong presence of Peruvian avocados, there won't be enough room for prices to rise significantly. At least not to the extent expected with the recovery of Mexican volumes.

There's an interesting fact that illustrates this reality: in Mexico, this week the farmgate price was higher for the domestic market than for export. This is an unusual situation, but possible under certain conditions.

Europe continues to pay close attention to Peru and the next avocado origins.

Regarding expectations for the European market, the question everyone is asking isn't how much fruit will arrive, as it's known that Peru's supply will continue its usual strong weekly growth. The real question is how long the supply will last, because stakeholders are analyzing the decisions they'll make beyond the Peruvian season. And that's where they're looking at other origins, like Colombia, with its main harvest; Chile; and African suppliers.

This is how a week of calm will unfold, but which - as usual - corresponds to the moment when the giants adjust their pieces, to recover their office curves.