Peru dominates European supply. The market is wondering when the campaign will end.

Peruvian exports continue to accelerate, reaching a new seasonal high in week 23, surpassing 1,500 containers per week for the first time. Europe is expected to receive 876 containers, a volume close to the market's capacity to absorb without a significant price drop, while the United States exceeded 300 containers per week for the first time. Exports to Asia and Latin America are also progressing as expected, reflecting Peru's strategy of diversifying destinations and managing supply.

The main question now is not whether these volumes can be reached, but whether they can be sustained. Although initially a high export rate was expected until the end of August or the beginning of September, more and more operators believe this will be difficult. Market attention is now focused on determining when the season will actually end, as this will affect the development of Colombia's main flower crop and the start of the Chilean season, in addition to the supply from Africa.

The 2026 season is also proving surprising in terms of fruit size. For much of the year, a greater presence of medium-sized fruit and a lower proportion of large fruit were projected. However, the reality has been different: supply continues to be concentrated in large sizes, while small sizes have proven much scarcer than expected, contradicting one of the main assumptions on which the initial production estimates were based. This situation helps explain why exports have progressed at a faster pace than anticipated. Although official projections still point to moderate growth compared to 2025, doubts are growing within the industry about whether there will actually be a significant increase in final production. The larger volumes seem to be due more to a temporary concentration of the harvest than to a greater structural availability of fruit.

From a commercial standpoint, the challenge for the coming months will be to properly manage the pace of the harvest and exports. If the concerns about the length of the season prove true, Europe could quickly shift from a scenario of abundant supply to one of much tighter availability, creating a particularly sensitive transition between the end of the Peruvian harvest and the start of the Colombian and Chilean seasons.