Europe enters a delicate stage of the Hass avocado season

The European Hass avocado market is currently experiencing one of the most intense periods of the season, with two consecutive weeks of very high arrivals and a growing sense of inventory buildup. Peru continues to rapidly increase its presence in Europe, several weeks ahead of last year's pace, while Brazil and South Africa, although slowly beginning to reduce their shipments, still maintain a significant market presence. This is complemented by a more stable supply from Colombia and Kenya, completing a scenario of abundant availability in virtually all European destinations.

Demand remains strong, especially in Northern Europe and France, driven primarily by aggressive promotions from both importers and supermarkets. Retailers have opted to pass on highly competitive prices to the end consumer, which has allowed them to maintain a good sales pace. However, the market is beginning to show signs of saturation due to oversupply, and price pressure is now affecting virtually the entire size range. Overall quality has improved thanks to the increased presence of Peruvian fruit from large, modern orchards, while arrivals of early fruit with dry matter or traceability issues are decreasing. Even so, heterogeneous lots and older fruit still exist, which will lead to significant differences in returns and settlements among operators.

One of the most noticeable changes in recent weeks has been the shift from a market dominated by small sizes to a much greater availability of large and medium-sized fruit. Large sizes, which were scarce and supported high prices just a few weeks ago, now show clear signs of saturation and have begun to experience significant price drops. Supermarket programs are still managing to absorb a significant portion of the supply, especially Peruvian fruit, but the spot market is extremely challenging for most origins, particularly South Africa and Brazil, where stocks continue to grow. Small sizes, on the other hand, are beginning to stabilize slightly due to the reduced availability of inexpensive fruit from older inventories.

The main uncertainty remains the behavior of the US market. Mexico has partially reduced the pace of its shipments, and although California continues to supplement the supply, sales are showing some deceleration due to rising consumer prices. So far, the United States has not required a significant influx of Peruvian or Colombian fruit, but signs of a slight opening are beginning to appear, especially considering the uncertainty surrounding the end of the Mexican season. This could become a key factor in partially easing the pressure on Europe in the coming weeks.

In the short term, all indications are that Europe will continue to experience a high supply, making the speed of turnover crucial to preventing further price drops. Peru is clearly becoming the central player in balancing the European market, at a time when its harvest is reaching its peak and other destinations, such as Asia, are beginning to show signs of slower growth. In this scenario, managing shipments will likely be the most important factor in avoiding a deeper oversupply crisis in the coming weeks.