Mexico exported 1,499 shipments of avocados to the United States market in week 12. Demand for the fruit has been strong and stable. Exporters have been able to obtain the required volumes, and until the weekend, producers were offering fruit at the same prices. For the harvests of Friday, Saturday, and Monday, an increase in the prices offered to producers was observed, and as is common in these cases, there is a tendency to speculate about further price increases, which is somewhat natural considering that waiting a couple of days to harvest could result in a higher price. The increase was around two pesos per kilo.

Once the price increase was consolidated, harvests during the beginning of week 13 were quite voluminous. Both exporters and importers will be focusing on building slightly higher than normal inventories in anticipation of the holidays in Mexico during week 14, Holy Week. Total inventories have been gradually increasing since the middle of week 12, and by the end of Tuesday, they had reached almost 25,400 tons, which is more than had been the case since the beginning of the year. Considering the harvest break next week, no problems are expected in the market. It is worth mentioning that California fruit inventories have been gradually increasing; while not yet significant, this will undoubtedly become a trend in the coming days and weeks.

The rise in inventories and the increase in California's harvest should halt any further speculation about additional price increases in Mexico—or so the theory goes. However, prices in Mexico typically rise in March, and in several years, this increase began as early as February, which hasn't happened this year. The reality is that in the coming weeks, we'll have a market supplied by Mexico and California, which usually results in a well-supplied market with higher prices than at the beginning of the year. We'll see what happens this year and before other origins enter the market.

Sergio Paz Vega
General Manager Coliman Avocados
sergio.paz@coliman.com
Mexico