Avocado in Ecuador: Monitoring the El Niño phenomenon, water stress and irrigation management

Each new climate update brings the same question back to the agricultural sector: should we be worried about what might happen in the coming months? The answer is clear: More than trying to predict the weather exactly, the real challenge for the industry is preparing for the various scenarios that could arise in the short and medium term.

Today, major global monitoring agencies like NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintain a near 68% probability of a moderate to high El Niño event developing toward the end of this year and the beginning of next year. This is relevant data, but by no means definitive. Export agriculture doesn't operate with absolute certainty; it operates with probabilities that must be constantly analyzed to make timely decisions in the field.

Monitoring in Ecuador: Early warnings in the ocean

In Ecuador , we are also beginning to see signs that justify maintaining strict surveillance in production areas. Technical measurements show ocean temperatures between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius higher than usual for this time of year.

However, it is still too early to determine the true magnitude of the phenomenon or its ultimate impact on production systems. In climatology, atmospheric conditions can evolve rapidly and alter current projections in just a few weeks.

It is precisely because of this uncertainty that strategic decisions cannot wait for absolute confirmation. Agricultural planning begins much earlier.

While the forecast continues to be adjusted, producers, technicians and sector authorities are already working on the implementation of various preventative measures to reduce economic and production risks if the climate scenario ultimately intensifies.

Avocado cultivation in the Ecuadorian highlands and water stress

In the specific case of avocado crops in the Ecuadorian highlands, we are currently facing the dry season. Although we are not yet in a critical situation, we are beginning to observe the first effects associated with water stress.

This situation could worsen if the lack of rain continues through the key months of August and September. This is undoubtedly one of the critical factors requiring constant monitoring and follow-up in the coming weeks.

Key strategies to mitigate the impact on the orchard:

Faced with this drought scenario, the technical priorities for the avocado producer are clear: Efficient irrigation management, where optimizing every liter is fundamental to maintaining soil moisture, management of water reserves, it is essential to monitor reservoirs, dams and available irrigation shifts.

Finally, it is necessary to discuss an adapted nutritional strategy: Implementing a plan that allows maintaining the proper physiological development of the trees under stress conditions.

None of these actions work in isolation. The balance between water availability and plant nutrition will be the determining factor for avocado orchards to be able to withstand a potential period of greater climatic demand.

Production prospects and commercial sizes

It is still too early to anticipate negative consequences for the final volume of avocado production in Ecuador. To date, we do not know if water stress will lead to increased fruit drop (fruit abortion) or if it will negatively affect the development of marketable sizes, limiting larger fruit. This technical analysis can only be carried out as the season progresses and we have more conclusive field data.

Therefore, I believe the main message for the avocado industry is not to generate unnecessary alarm, but to strengthen monitoring tools . Each new data update adds value for adjusting phytosanitary strategies and reducing risks. Waiting for absolute certainty before taking action is often one of the most costly decisions modern agriculture can make.

In an industry where the climate is constantly changing, the ability to anticipate will continue to be one of the most important competitive advantages to protect production, ensure fruit quality, and face environmental challenges with greater resilience.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador