The challenge lies not only in the market, but also in the climate

In the avocado industry, seasons often begin not with the harvest, but with the weather. And today, in Ecuador, much of the industry's discussion revolves around precisely that: the possible arrival of El Niño and the impact it could have on crops in the coming months.

The El Niño phenomenon is a climatological event that originates in the central Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometers from the coasts of the Americas, but whose effects directly impact agricultural producing countries such as Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile. Variations in ocean temperatures, changes in wind patterns, and alterations in rainfall mean that the entire agricultural industry remains vigilant regarding what may occur between December and February, especially considering that the intensity of this event is still uncertain.

In Ecuador, the signs are already beginning to cause concern. The country is currently experiencing early summer conditions, with drier weather than usual, virtually no rainfall, and winds that typically only appear around the June solstice. For agricultural production in the highlands, these scenarios often translate into droughts and water stress, factors that can directly affect crop development and the stability of flowering.

The issue is significant. In fact, the potential arrival of El Niño even led the country to move up the local elections, originally scheduled for February, to November as a preventative measure against a possible complex climate scenario. And while Colombia is already deepening its risk analysis and Peru is also evaluating potential impacts, the Ecuadorian productive sector acknowledges that it is currently on high alert.

However, alongside climate concerns, there is also optimism regarding the upcoming harvest. Current blooms indicate a much more favorable scenario compared to previous seasons, with trees laden with flowers and positive prospects for recovery. The challenge will be ensuring that a potential dry spell or severe drought does not negatively impact the duration of these blooms and, consequently, the harvest's overall potential.

For now, the focus is on constant monitoring and prevention. Irrigation efforts will be crucial to avoid water stress in the crops, while pruning, organic matter preparation, and pest control continue in the fields, especially at a time when pests often make a significant difference to orchard development.

Meanwhile, the sector is also focusing on the commercial front. The possibility of greater fruit availability opens up opportunities to consolidate existing clients and explore new markets. Furthermore, there is an expectation of recovering some of the sales window lost last year, with shipments shifting from week 52 to an estimated range between weeks 42 and 46.

It's still too early to confirm definitive scenarios. Clearer signs regarding the El Niño phenomenon and its true intensity will likely emerge between July and August. But while that unfolds, Ecuador is already beginning to prepare. Because in the avocado industry, as in much of agriculture, the business often depends as much on the market as on what happens in the sky.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador