Ecuador and the final sprint of the avocado campaign

The close of the 2025–2026 Ecuadorian avocado season leaves a bittersweet feeling: on the one hand, production gains and clear signs of recovery; on the other, a commercial and geopolitical environment that necessitates a cautious approach to the short and medium term. Week 15 marks the last significant shipment, bringing to a close a season that, far from being straightforward, was marked by multiple factors that strained its development.

The first thing that defines this cycle is its “turbulent” nature. It wasn't simply a campaign with lower volume, but a season marked by commercial, climatic, logistical, and even geopolitical variables that directly impacted its performance. Even the initial projections anticipated a scenario with better quality fruit, but with a more limited supply. Today, with the campaign drawing to a close, that prediction is confirmed: the volume didn't reach the levels of previous seasons, but an improvement in the fruit's condition was observed.

This lower volume cannot be analyzed in isolation. It is part of a broader process of production adjustment that has been affecting various origins in recent years. Ecuador has been no exception. After two challenging seasons—marked primarily by drought—a correction in the cycle is now becoming evident. This phenomenon is not unique to Ecuador: markets such as Chile and Peru have already gone through this process, and all indications are that Colombia is also in a similar stage.

In this context, the end of the season not only marks a conclusion but also a turning point. Current agronomic indicators—healthy flowering and fruit set—allow us to project a 2026–2027 season with stronger production fundamentals. This doesn't necessarily mean an explosion in volume, but rather a more stable base that could translate into greater consistency in supply.

Looking ahead, the calendar also shows some important adjustments. Ecuador plans to resume its export shipments starting in October, after a previous period—August and September—focused primarily on supplying the local market. This opens the door to a longer campaign, which could run roughly from week 45 to week 10 or 12 of the following year. Unlike the current cycle, which was more concentrated and irregular, the next one could be characterized by greater continuity, although not necessarily by intense volume peaks.

However, beyond production, the main source of uncertainty today lies in the trade and geopolitical arena. Europe remains the primary destination for Ecuadorian avocados, exposing the sector to any changes in market conditions. Current signals call for caution: there are concerns about how demand, regulations, and trade dynamics might evolve over the next six to twelve months.

In this scenario, differentiation becomes key. Exporters who have invested in certifications, traceability, and more demanding standards appear to be better positioned to face potential restrictions or changes in market requirements. However, the challenge is broader at the national level. There is a segment of the industry that does not yet operate under these standards and could be more vulnerable if international demand tightens its requirements.

The season that has just ended offers several lessons. First, that quality alone does not fully compensate for lower volume in contexts of high uncertainty. Second, that synchronization with global production cycles is increasingly relevant in a market where multiple origins compete simultaneously. And third, that external factors—from weather to geopolitics—are playing an increasingly decisive role.

Ecuador is now entering the prelude to its sixth export season with a scenario that combines opportunity and prudence. The improved production provides an encouraging foundation, but the international environment demands constant and strategic market analysis. More than ever, success will depend not only on production volume, but also on how, when, and under what standards the fruit is delivered to its destination.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador