Closing a campaign is never just a numbers game. It's, above all, an opportunity for self-reflection. And the 2025-2026 Ecuadorian avocado campaign offers precisely that: a mix of tension, lessons learned, and clear signs of where the industry needs to go.

It wasn't an easy season. Entering the market late, in a landscape where origins like Peru had already established a presence, is no small matter. It is, in fact, a structural disadvantage that demands greater precision, more strategy, and, above all, greater efficiency. Even so, Ecuador achieved the most important thing: placing the majority of its fruit in the right weeks, concentrating its shipments between week 3 and week 10, leaving only a small remainder for the following weeks.

There's a first takeaway: when the timing is right, even in adverse contexts, there's room to compete.

But there's also a warning. The industry can no longer rely on "good enough" windows of opportunity. The lesson is clear: greater productivity is needed, and above all, a greater concentration of volume at key moments. It's not enough to simply produce; production must be precise.

The second lesson is perhaps the most uncomfortable, but also the most realistic. Ecuador, like any emerging market, is not isolated. Logistics, politics, and the global economy are not just external variables: they are part of the business. Ignoring them is a mistake. Anticipating them, on the other hand, can make the difference between a decent campaign and a truly competitive one.

In this context, progress in certifications is not a technical detail; it's a strategic signal. Having met standards such as GlobalG.AP, GRASP, and Rainforest Alliance, along with other European market requirements, not only opens doors but also legitimizes the origin of Ecuadorian products. Today, Ecuador is not only reaching markets; it is beginning to be considered within them.

This is reflected, for example, in destinations like the Netherlands, where Ecuador is already appearing in price references in avocado origin listings. It may seem like a minor milestone, but it isn't. Being part of the price conversation is, in many cases, the first step toward gaining real market share.

Added to this is the consolidation of markets that until recently were considered gambles, such as Argentina. These are quiet but fundamental advances for diversifying risk and building a more solid commercial base.

Looking ahead, there's a positive sign: the recovery of the production calendar. With good flowering and ongoing health controls, Ecuador projects returning to its usual window, with availability from October-November 2026 to March 2027. This not only stabilizes supply but also restores competitiveness.

And with that comes a logical expectation: greater volume in the next campaign. But more volume, in and of itself, doesn't guarantee better results. If this season taught us anything, it's that the market doesn't forgive misalignments between supply and context.

Because that's the bottom line: the global landscape remains uncertain. Europe and the UK continue to be important markets, but they are also areas where stability is not guaranteed. Putting all your eggs in one basket, without constantly monitoring the environment, can quickly become a vulnerability.

Therefore, more than a conclusion, this campaign leaves an invitation: to stop thinking of the avocado business as a sequence of productive windows and start understanding it as a system where production, market and global context are deeply connected.

Ecuador has already taken important steps. Now the challenge is not to arrive, but to stay. And in that process, the difference will not only be in how much fruit is produced, but in how well the moment when that fruit enters the world is understood.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador