Ecuador is preparing a Hass campaign with higher volume.

Discussing the upcoming Hass avocado season in Ecuador today requires looking far beyond flowering or projected volumes. Production can no longer be analyzed in isolation. It is inextricably linked to the climate, geopolitics, international logistics, and also to an increasingly evident phenomenon: the growth of local consumption.

The Ecuadorian production window maintains its usual pattern, starting between weeks 45 and 46 and extending to weeks 12 and 15. However, the outlook for the 2026-2027 season does not appear to be a conventional one. After two significant droughts in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons, which impacted production in terms of both volume and quality, and also caused the loss of a key flowering period, the sector is now beginning to experience a natural correction in the production cycles.

The drought left its mark on the 2025-2026 growing season, but it also opens the door to a significant recovery. Current flowering is more abundant, with a visible recovery in the growing cycles and the two main flowering periods, as well as an improvement in the so-called "off-peak" flowering. Under these circumstances, projections point to an average production increase of around 40%, with some areas and crops potentially seeing increases of between 60% and 70%.

But producing more doesn't necessarily mean being in a more comfortable position.

The potential development of an El Niño phenomenon has once again raised concerns that cannot be ignored. Although it is still a preliminary projection and its true extent will be clearer towards the end of June, the mere possibility of such an event necessitates preparation. In Ecuador, particularly in the highlands where agricultural production is concentrated, the impact would not necessarily translate into more rain, but rather the opposite risk: new droughts resulting from moisture concentrations in other areas.

The problem wouldn't be solely related to production. The fruit is primarily shipped through coastal ports, especially Guayaquil, and any adverse weather conditions in that area could quickly translate into logistical complications, flooding, and increased operating costs. In Peru and Colombia, where excessive rainfall could be more severe, the impact could be even greater, affecting both production and exports.

Added to this is an international scenario that also offers little certainty. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt strategic supply chains, while tensions between the United States and Iran add pressure to energy and fuel costs. It's not just about freight costs. The availability and price of key inputs such as urea and nitrates, whose imports depend largely on the Middle East and the Ukrainian region, are also at stake.

In this context, every business decision becomes more critical. Ecuador knows that its strongest window of opportunity will be between January, February, and March, precisely when other nearby export markets will also be strong internationally. The task will not be easy: maintaining market share and seeking growth in a scenario where competition, costs, and geopolitical uncertainty are all at play.

But perhaps one of the most relevant changes is not outside, but within the Ecuadorian market itself.

Local consumption of Hass avocados is no longer marginal. While in the early years of exports, Hass' share of the domestic market was low and varieties like Fuerte predominated, today Hass accounts for nearly 30% of local consumption, according to end-of-season estimates. This structural change necessitates a rethinking of commercial strategy.

Ecuadorian consumers already recognize the product, seek it out, and distribution channels require a constant supply throughout the year, even though production never completely ceases. This growth in local consumption is good news, but also a new challenge: maintaining supply, avoiding excessive price increases, and not losing the ground gained.

Today, that balance is precisely under pressure. The loss of flowering has reduced availability in the fields, and prices are already showing an anticipated increase. Normally, these increases are seen between July and September, but this year the rise began in April. This creates tension throughout the entire chain: producers, logistics, distribution, and consumers face a less predictable scenario.

Ecuador thus enters the final stages of the harvest season with an interesting paradox: improved production prospects, but also greater risk factors. The challenge will not only be to harvest more, but also to better manage uncertainty.

Because in avocados, as in almost all modern agriculture, simply producing is no longer enough. We need to anticipate future needs.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador