The avocado market in Europe: Towards a tight supply?

Over the past few weeks, the European avocado market has begun to show signs of a shift that will likely shape the second half of the season. After several months of abundant supply, especially from Peru, it is becoming increasingly clear that available volumes will decrease sooner than many anticipated.

Currently, Europe is receiving around 150 fewer containers per week compared to previous weeks. Although supply remains sufficient to meet current demand, this reduction is already beginning to alleviate some of the pressure on avocado prices, especially for medium and small sizes.

The Peru factor and the drop in volume projections

The main factor behind this scenario is Peru . The most recent estimates indicate that the Peruvian campaign will end with a lower volume than initially projected. This means that importers and distributors in the European market will have to adapt to more limited availability in the coming weeks.

The key question for the sector is no longer whether there will be less Peruvian fruit, but which origins and importers will be able to replace those strategic volumes.

Supplier countries seeking to balance the European market

The transition to the second half of the season opens the door for several global players looking to fill the supply gap. South Africa will continue to be a significant supplier to the continent, although its capacity to fully offset the Peruvian reduction is limited.

In the Americas, Colombia will continue to gradually increase its share and shipments, while Mexico could allocate some additional volumes to Europe, always depending on trade conditions and the evolution of other priority markets such as the United States.

Kenya, for its part, could represent an alternative supply source, although doubts persist in the sector regarding the regularity of its supply and some quality aspects that still generate caution among buyers in the Old Continent.

Chile's leading role in the export window

In this context of transition, Chile emerges as a source that could gain greater prominence if it manages to launch its campaign with strong volumes and consistent quality. Its arrival would coincide precisely with a time when Europe will need new suppliers to maintain the balance between supply and demand.

Outlook: Towards a stabilization of avocado prices

All indications are that the European market will move beyond the oversupply that characterized much of the beginning of the season. With tighter availability, trading conditions could stabilize and allow for a gradual recovery in prices .

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining which countries will fill the gap left by Peruvian exports and how the market will respond. More than a demand issue, the sector's main challenge will lie in the ability of different countries to replace, at least partially, the volumes that will no longer be available at European ports.

Charles Auberge
Directeur Commercial Soly Import France
c.auberge@solyimport.fr
+33 6 24732089