December has always been a particular month in the avocado exporters' calendar. The current weeks confirm this trend: European markets are saturated, especially with smaller sizes (20 to 26), and demand is weak. Large importers are openly expressing concern about the low sales, but this is simply a reflection of typical European consumption habits at this time of year.

It's a well-known fact that December brings significant changes to the food preferences of European consumers. With the arrival of the holidays, attention shifts towards seasonal products more closely linked to the culinary traditions of the celebrations, temporarily relegating avocados to the background. However, this shouldn't be cause for alarm. We know that once the festivities are over, Europeans return to their regular eating habits, and avocados reclaim their usual place on the table.

One relevant fact is that Morocco, just days after the start of its export season, has already surpassed 20,000 tons, demonstrating significant production and export capacity. As we move towards 2025, we observe that markets are beginning to adjust. After the first week of November, certain origins, such as Kenya and Colombia, which typically supply medium sizes (sizes 18 to 24), begin to disappear. However, these sizes face pricing challenges, which could create opportunities for other players.

All eyes are on January, a month that historically brings a surge in demand. This year should be no different. We expect conditions to improve, just as they did in early November when the market showed clear signs of recovery. Furthermore, we are confident that prices will remain stable, allowing us to start the year on a positive note.

The peak season will begin with high volumes from January until the end of April. The farms are ready for this period, and optimism prevails. Ultimately, December is a typical lull in the sector, rather than a cause for alarm. The key lies in understanding the natural cycles of consumption and preparing for periods of higher demand.

Yassin Chaib Morocco