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Yassin Chaib

When the weather rules, but the market holds firm

Morocco

Some campaigns are defined by volume. Others by price. And some—like the current one in Morocco—are best explained by the ability to adapt.

We've come through a challenging few weeks. Persistent rain, bad weather, and an interrupted harvest forced us to slow down just when the schedule was pressing. This is no small matter. In a business where every week counts and where sales planning is done weeks—sometimes months—in advance, losing continuity in the field always causes concern.

However, the European market has sent a clear signal: stability. Prices remain strong, firm, and without any sudden fluctuations. And that, in the current context, is invaluable. Because when supply is affected by weather factors, the risk usually shifts to the destination in the form of volatility. This has not been the case. Europe has absorbed the impact normally and supported prices, sending a message of confidence to the source.

However, not everything is uniform. Smaller gauges—22 and 24—show somewhat less dynamism in demand. It's not a collapse, but rather an adjustment. And this opens up a broader reflection: the market is rewarding versatility and planning. In more selective consumption scenarios, intermediate gauges tend to concentrate the interest of retailers, while the extremes require more refined commercial strategies.

With between 15,000 and 20,000 tons still to be shipped, Morocco is entering the final stretch of the campaign, aiming for completion in the third or fourth week of March. It's not a small volume, but neither is it an unreasonable pressure. The challenge will be maintaining order: harvest pace, logistical efficiency, and commercial discipline.

My impression is that this campaign offers a clear lesson: beyond the numbers, what makes the difference is the ability to manage uncertainty. The weather can't be controlled. But the reaction can. And when the market cooperates, as is happening in Europe, the lockdown can become an opportunity to consolidate reputation and trust.

The outcome will depend not only on how much is left to sell, but also on how it's sold. And with avocados, every detail counts.

Yassin Chaib
Export Manager Mavoca
Morocco

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