Mexico: Market Comments
Mexico ended week 11 sending more than 1,480 shipments to the United States market, a figure well above any forecast made for the second week of March. Both producers and exporters were well-coordinated to supply the market with the required volume without causing, at least so far, an imbalance between supply and demand, as inventories remained stable during the week.
As is typical with this type of demand, prices offered to producers rose, but the increase was not uniform across all sizes. Sizes 48 and larger remained more stable, with the price movement during the week not exceeding one dollar per box. However, 60-size avocados increased by at least five dollars by the weekend and are expected to continue rising in week 12. Some marketers anticipate that the price of 60-size avocados could be higher than that of 40- and 48-size avocados by week 12. The price of 70-size avocados also increased by over seven dollars due to strong demand. The narrowing price gap between larger and smaller sizes encourages marketers to return to handling the size they feel most comfortable with to serve their customers, whether they are supermarket chains, fruit shops, or restaurants.
It appears the increased demand could be due to importers and distributors anticipating a shortened harvest week because of the holiday on Monday, March 18th in Mexico, and considering that week 13 is Holy Week, meaning fruit can only be harvested for three days in most municipalities. The effect of increased inventories, as mentioned earlier, has not yet materialized.
The effects of Easter and the suspension of harvests will significantly impact the flow of fruit from its origin until at least the middle of week 14. The first shipments are expected to cross the border on Wednesday, April 3rd. With rising prices, more producers will be willing to harvest, thus avoiding stress on the trees due to the increased ambient temperatures in all producing regions and the greater limitations in water supply for normal irrigation at this time of year.
Sergio Paz Vega
