Mexico: Market Comments
The avocado harvest in Mexico was consistent and strong during week ten. More than 33,000 tons were harvested from orchards certified for export to the United States alone. Demand for the fruit increased, and exporters responded by sending a robust volume of 1,371 shipments to the U.S. market. However, warehouse inventories did not increase throughout the week, indicating that the fruit was being distributed to consumption centers.
Fruit prices paid to producers have also been gradually increasing. At the end of the week, importers showed confidence in sizes 60s and smaller, while remaining skeptical about sizes 48s and larger. It is reasonable to anticipate that smaller sizes will continue to strengthen due to good demand, while sizes 48s and larger may be weaker at the start of week eleven. However, this does not necessarily mean that prices will fall; rather, they are expected to remain stable or experience a smaller price increase than those for sizes 60s and smaller.
Another factor that could be affecting the fruit supply, and which could be considered a natural effect for this time of year, is the decrease in the number of orchards available for harvest in each municipality. This situation occurs every year, so it is not unusual; this trend will continue until the end of the season. It is only in March that producers in higher altitude areas will begin their harvests.
Other markets are also demanding a significant volume of Mexican fruit, primarily Japan and Canada, two markets that traditionally require smaller sizes and will compete for this fruit with the United States market. The Jalisco production region typically has its lowest availability during March and April, so demand for fruit from Michoacán could also increase as exporters from that region, facing reduced supply, may opt to purchase fruit from Michoacán producers.
As mentioned previously, each season is different and presents different challenges and opportunities. Starting in March, a period will begin with circumstances different from those of the previous months, and all participants in the chain will implement strategies that we hope will keep the market active, supplied with fruit, and with certainty for distributors, resulting in a sufficiently satisfied consumer.
Sergio Paz Vega
