Mexico exported 907 shipments of avocados to the United States market during week 19. Demand for Mexican fruit exceeded expectations, based on feedback from most importers. Inventories remained generally stable in terms of total reported volumes during the week. The most notable change in inventory composition by country of origin was the increased share of Peruvian and Colombian fruit.

California held a third of the inventories, Mexico fell from 51% to 47%, and the combined share of Peru and Colombia rose from 14% to 18% by the start of week 20. Many importers have been insisting that programs with major retail chains are shifting to other origins; however, demand for Mexican fruit has not decreased enough for exporters to be able to make more compelling arguments with producers, who continue to strongly resist accepting lower prices for their fruit.

It is undeniable that Peruvian fruit volumes will increase substantially in the coming weeks, but as of today, those volumes are not physically present in the market, and the importers' constant message regarding the change of origin does not appear to be materializing. Demand for Mexican fruit will need to be much lower in the coming days for producers to truly realize that they will have to sell their fruit at market prices that allow exporters to market their fruit competitively.

California has consistently maintained its harvest and there is no indication that its volumes will increase or decrease significantly.

Peru and Colombia will set the pace for additional volume, and Mexico will adapt to the conditions. It is important to mention that Mexico can also compete on price and, primarily, on quality.

The new season's fruit harvest has begun for markets other than the United States. So far, the price differential doesn't appear attractive enough to justify offering fruit with lower dry matter content. However, some exporters, primarily from the state of Jalisco, have decided to start. The impact this will have on various markets, including the domestic market, remains to be seen in the coming weeks.

Sergio Paz Vega, General Manager, Coliman Avocados, sergio.paz@coliman.com , Mexico