2025 began with mixed signals for Hass avocados in the Chinese market. Although prices have remained relatively stable, demand has been weak, especially during the first five weeks of the year.

André Vargas, commercial director of Fruwer Produce LLC, explains that this is due to a recurring phenomenon: “During the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year, Chilean cherries concentrate the attention of buyers, leaving other fruits, such as avocados, in the background.”

During the first two weeks, good quality Peruvian avocados —in sizes 20 to 24— were sold for between RMB 80.00 and RMB 100.00 per 4 kg box, which translates to an FOB Callao/Chancay of approximately USD 7.70 to USD 10.10.

“Fruit with smooth skin and recognized brands reached the highest prices in the range,” Vargas explains. However, between weeks 3 and 5, although the price floor rose slightly to RMB 90.00, the pace of sales remained slow, and activity practically ground to a halt in week 5 with the start of the Chinese New Year holiday.

A tighter market: fewer containers and Chilean prominence

The data also confirms the adjustment. Tomás de la Cuadra, an analyst at Avobook, points out that “in this same period in 2024, just over 500 containers of avocados were imported, while this year the figure does not exceed 350.”

Peru remains the main supplier, but its share has fallen significantly: "The Andean country has sent almost half the volume it registered in the same period of 2024, mainly because it is fruit from the highlands, which this year has lower production."

Peru's decline contrasts sharply with Chile's expansion. According to De la Cuadra, the South American country has practically doubled its shipments compared to the same period last year, thanks to greater fruit availability. At the start of 2025, 63% of the volume imported to China comes from Peru, 36% from Chile, and only 1% from Mexico, a country that has lost relevance in the market. "Mexico is practically nonexistent this year, with fewer than five containers, whereas in other years it could move between 50 and 80 during this same period," he emphasizes.

Chilean avocados have also gained ground due to their quality: Vargas says they are selling at higher prices, up to RMB 125.00 per box, thanks to their greater consistency in the pulp and the absence of defects, something that Chinese buyers are willing to pay for.

Export activity from Peru has also fluctuated. Weeks 1 and 2 saw very low shipments (4 and 2 containers, respectively), but week 3 experienced a rebound with 43 containers shipped, most destined for Shanghai. However, the following week the volume fell again to 22 containers. Vargas explains that this drop was due to a delayed shipment, which allowed for the consolidation of exports for week 5, when a new peak in shipments is expected.

Regarding costs, Vargas warns that “for the purchase price at the farm gate—between 6.60 and 7.20 soles per kilo for sizes 12 to 24—to be even minimally profitable, the fruit must be sold in China for at least RMB 95.00 per box.” However, this profitability is currently only achieved by fruits of excellent quality and recognized brands, leaving many exporters with very tight or even negative margins.

Despite the challenges, there are signs of cautious optimism. The Chinese economy began to show signs of recovery toward the end of 2024, supported by sectors such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and clean energy. Vargas believes this could work in our favor: “Combined with government stimulus, we could see a rebound in consumption, including of fruits like avocados.”

The Chinese market remains unpredictable, but the coming months will be key to assessing whether avocados can capitalize on opportunities that may arise after the holiday, in a context where importers still face a delicate financial situation and where each container shipped will be decisive in setting the pace for the year.

“Avocados still have potential in China, but in a volatile environment, you have to read the market accurately week by week,” Vargas concludes.