South Africa adjusts its strategy to maintain its place in Europe

South Africa is reaffirming its position as a key player in the global avocado market, supported by a solid production base and a strategy that seeks to adapt to an increasingly competitive landscape. With over 21,000 hectares in commercial production and nearly 160,000 tons annually, approximately half of which is exported, the country has achieved sustained growth that stems not only from an increase in planted area but also from a strategic evolution in its production and marketing methods.

“New plantings continue at a rate of approximately 800 hectares per year,” explains Derek Donkin, president of the South African Subtropical Growers' Association (Subtrop), which represents the avocado and other fruit industry in that country.

This growth, he adds, is not only quantitative, but also strategic: “A large part of these new plantations are located in regions or microclimatic zones where the fruit can be harvested before or after the traditional season.”

The result is a window of opportunity that now extends from February to December, allowing the country to insert itself more precisely into the global calendar.

In this context, Europe remains the main destination and focus of South Africa's trade strategy.

“Europe is and will remain our main export market for the foreseeable future,” says Donkin. Far from losing ground to the growing competition from countries like Peru, Colombia, and Morocco, South Africa has chosen to strengthen its presence by taking advantage of specific market opportunities.

“There has been a focus on supplying larger volumes before Peru enters the market and again when its volumes decrease, taking advantage of specific calendar windows to better position South African fruit in Europe and avoid price pressure during periods of higher global supply,” he explains.

However, this positioning coexists with a challenging scenario. Global supply growth has, at certain times, outpaced demand, putting upward pressure on prices during periods of high availability.

“In recent years, the increase in supply has outpaced the growth in demand, which has put downward pressure on prices during peak periods,” Donkin acknowledges. In response, the sector has reinforced its efforts to stimulate consumption, where the work of the World Avocado Organization (WAO) plays a central role.

“Currently, Peru and South Africa are the main funders of this initiative, which has been joined by other players such as Spain, Tanzania, Kenya, Colombia, and Israel. The greater the participation from all origins, the greater the benefits for everyone, in a context where consumption continues to grow and there is great potential to develop in the European market,” he maintains.

Market diversification

Meanwhile, market diversification is emerging as a necessity, albeit with specific challenges. “Currently, volumes to China and India remain very low,” he notes. Tariff barriers continue to be a significant obstacle: “In India, we face a 30% tariff, while other origins like Tanzania have zero tariffs, which puts us at a disadvantage.” In the case of China, expectations are focused on negotiations that could improve access in the medium term.

The sector's competitiveness is also influenced by structural factors such as logistics. While improvements were observed in the recent season, the issue remains a concern. "In 2025, there were far fewer logistical problems than in previous years, and we expect this improvement to continue in 2026," Donkin notes. However, he clarifies that this is a broader phenomenon: "Logistical challenges are not unique to South Africa, so it's difficult to determine how much they affect our competitiveness compared to other countries."

Despite these tensions, the industry is showing signs of adjustment typical of a dynamic market. The expansion of planted area, which tends to accelerate in years of high prices, begins to moderate when conditions become more demanding. “When prices are high, more avocados are planted; when they are under pressure, the planting rate slows. That's how the market works,” he explains.

With over five decades of supplying the European market, South Africa projects its development based on sustained growth, but is mindful of the evolving dynamics of the business. “Volumes are growing at a sustainable pace, and we expect further expansion into new markets such as China and India in the coming years,” Donkin concludes.