Prepare before uncertainty arrives

Reports from international organizations like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) repeatedly place the El Niño phenomenon and climate variability at the center of the conversation. The constant fluctuations in forecasts and alert levels keep the agricultural export industry in a state of continuous monitoring.

However, beyond the fluctuating percentages or the traffic light color in each update, there's a point I consider even more important. In agriculture, forecasts shouldn't be seen as definitive predictions, but rather as a tool for proactive preparation. The real challenge isn't trying to guess what will happen, but starting to make decisions while there's still time.

Climate monitoring and scenario assessment in Ecuador

In Ecuador, we are already experiencing this process. In addition to continuously monitoring international reports, institutions like INOCAR are tracking ocean behavior and temperature anomalies that could have an impact in the coming months. Currently, we are observing temperatures between two and three degrees Celsius above normal, a situation that requires attention, although it is still too early to determine its final trajectory.

Precisely because of this uncertainty, various sectors have already begun working on contingency plans. Not only agriculture, but also infrastructure, logistics, and public services are evaluating different scenarios to reduce potential impacts if weather conditions continue to evolve.

Impact on crops: From excess water to irrigation management

In the avocado industry, this planning takes on even greater importance due to the phenological stage the crops are in. While species like bananas or mangoes focus their concern on the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas, for avocados the focus is on water availability during the dry season, efficient irrigation management, and the ability to sustain adequate fruit development during the driest months of the year.

Added to this is a logistical dimension that often goes unnoticed. If a weather event affects strategic areas like Guayaquil, the main port of departure for a large part of our exports, the consequences could extend far beyond the orchards. Logistics is also part of risk management and must be incorporated from the outset into any planning.

Nutrition and agronomic management in key phenological stages

Our crops are currently going through a crucial phenological stage. Our main focus is on ensuring timely irrigation and balanced nutrition to support fruit development. These two strategies are complementary: proper nutrition loses its effectiveness without sufficient water availability, just as irrigation alone cannot meet the crop's physiological needs.

Monitoring will be especially important during August and September. If water stress persists, effects on fruit development may begin to be observed, increasing the risk of fruit abortion or a higher proportion of smaller fruit sizes.

Although it is still premature to anticipate that scenario, it is precisely this stage of cultivation that requires constant monitoring and adjustment of agronomic management as water availability evolves.

Anticipation as the best strategy against climate change

Agriculture will always coexist with uncertainty. What has changed is our ability to anticipate it. Today we have better tools to monitor the weather, interpret the data, and make more informed decisions.

Capitalizing on this advantage will be crucial to protecting fruit development, maintaining the sector's competitiveness, and better preparing for any scenario that may arise in the coming months. Because, in the avocado industry, preparing before uncertainty arrives remains the best possible investment.

Santiago Pinto
Director Iteranza
spinto@interanza.com
Ecuador