As we enter October, the Fall season begins the Northern Hemisphere

The weather is cooler, the children return to school, and Avocado Transitions of countries of origin take place.  

2026 has broken many volume records in the US avocado market.

For the crop season that ended in June, Mexican imports shattered previous records with over 2.7 billion pounds.   This pushed US consumption to 3.3 billion pounds overall.  In January we broke the record for most avocados sold in a single month.  In March we set a new record.   With the  USA able to absorb 75 million pounds/week in the dead of winter (in a slightly rising market), many growers were looking forward to the summer. 

Misinformation in May created market volatility which slowed movement.  World Cup retail promotions were cancelled.  Weekly sales volume in June and July decreased.  Inventories climbed.   Affordability topped the minds of American consumers as the cost of Diesel topped $8/gallon in California.  The avocado market was difficult.

Why did the avocado market slow down midyear?

As the dust settles and the USA transitions from multiple countries of origin, an analysis of summer “struggle” yields a number of dynamic changes. 

1. Powered by early availability from Jalisco, Mexico’s share of market never fell below 50% during the Summer transition from old-crop to new-crop.
2. Peruvian arrivals fell nearly 40% from the previous year, resulting in the second-smallest volume shipped to the USA in a decade.
3. Colombian arrivals reduced by 70%.
4. European prices during the July “collapse” remained over €6/case compared to the €3/case that was common just a few years ago. 
   
   

Shipments of Mexican avocados to the United States have grown by 11% since July.

From July-September Mexico has shipped 11% more fruit to the United States than last year’s record.   Sizes have been running as large or larger than last season.  College football promotions by Avocados from Mexico are in full force.   If this continues, US per-capita avocado consumption will surpass 10 pounds this season.  This reflects a nearly 10-fold growth vs. the turn of the century.     Growers have a lot to be proud of.  Breaking volume records can cause challenges, but sustained growth over three-decades means that they supply a product that has become embraced by consumers around the world.

Giovanni Cavaletto
CEO, GLC Cerritos, LLC. (USA)
giovanni.cavaletto@glc.mx