Back in September, it was expected that avocado demand in Europe would return to normal after the summer holidays. However, the recovery in consumption levels is proving slower than usual. This, coupled with stronger-than-expected shipments from Peru in recent weeks, is preventing prices from rising as anticipated.

Another important factor at this time of year is the amount of fruit with an excessively high oil content, which is reflected in the rapid ripening and the numerous arrivals of discolored fruit. Although most of this year's Peruvian fruit has high cosmetic and internal quality, we are experiencing an oversupply of ripe fruit in the markets.

On the near horizon, we see the first arrivals from Chile, which we expect will be well received by the market due to their high quality and green fruit. However, the Chilean season has started with a slightly lower size curve than normal.

It remains to be seen how long it will be profitable for Europe to continue relying on this source, especially given Israel and Morocco's concerns about starting extra-early harvests. The situation is complex and will require close monitoring to understand how the market will evolve in the coming weeks.