California's avocado industry navigates a complex landscape influenced by shifting market preferences, weather benefits, and pending trade policies.

Market trends favoring smaller sizes

Recent observations indicate a growing preference for smaller avocados, particularly size 60. This shift is attributed to the higher price of size 48 avocados, leading shoppers to opt for cheaper alternatives.

The current market is characterized by a limited supply, with all sizes experiencing tight availability. Quality remains good. Last weekend saw the largest harvest to date, with nearly 4 million pounds harvested on Friday and Saturday.

High market prices and tight supply are expected to persist for the next few weeks.

Weather conditions benefit delayed harvests

Producers who postponed their harvests have benefited from the recent rains, which have improved the size and quality of the fruit.

The California Avocado Commission projects that the 2025 harvest will reach approximately 375 million pounds, marking the largest harvest since 2020. This optimistic forecast is bolstered by investments in new plantings and improved yields per acre, despite early-season challenges such as strong winds.

Tariff uncertainty looms over the market

The industry faces potential disruptions due to anticipated tariffs on Mexican agricultural imports, including avocados, which will take effect on April 2, 2025.

These 25% tariffs, part of the US administration's strategy to address trade imbalances and border security concerns, have led to a 20% year-on-year decrease in Mexican avocado shipments to the US.

Prices have risen, but the implementation of tariffs could disrupt global trade and lead Mexico to seek different customers, potentially causing avocado shortages in the U.S.

Harvest progress and prospects

To date, California has harvested approximately 51 million pounds of avocados. Whether the total season will reach the projected 375 million pounds remains uncertain, especially considering the strong winds early in the season that affected some orchards.

However, the industry remains optimistic that favorable weather conditions and strategic harvesting will contribute to a robust season.

As the season progresses, stakeholders are advised to closely monitor market developments, especially regarding size preferences, price trends, and trade policies that could influence the California avocado market.

Gary Clevenger Freska Produce International, LLC gary@freskaproduce.com