The Peruvian avocado export campaign to Chile is now underway, marking a new phase in the regional market. According to Avobook's data team, the first shipments will begin in February, with limited volumes reflecting the early stages of the season.

During these first few weeks, shipments remained low, but with a clear upward trend. This trend gradually intensified until April, the month in which the most significant flow of fruit to the Chilean market was consolidated, leading to a greater presence of Peruvian origin.

One of the most significant milestones of the season occurs precisely between April and May. This period sees the most pronounced increase in export activity, rapidly rising from a few weekly shipments, hovering around minimum levels at the start, to a high and sustained volume. This turning point marks Peru's full entry into the Chilean market, with an accelerated expansion of available supply.

In terms of total volume, projections for the 2026 season point to a slight increase compared to the previous season. This growth anticipates greater avocado availability in Chile, which could translate into increasing downward pressure on prices as the season progresses and peak shipments are reached.

However, price behavior would not depend solely on increased supply. In the logistics sector, global uncertainty surrounding fuel costs persists. Even so, this factor would not necessarily translate directly into final prices at the destination. According to Avobook's data team analysis, the adjustment would primarily occur in the return shipments to the point of origin.

This is because freight costs are typically deducted when payments are made to producers and exporters. Consequently, while prices in the Chilean market would continue to be determined primarily by the interaction between supply and demand, margins at the source could face greater pressure. This scenario would have a greater impact on exporters than on importers.

In summary, the 2026 season is shaping up to have a rapid expansion of supply starting in April, moderate growth in total volume compared to the previous year, and a context where the pressure would be concentrated more on returns than on final prices in the Chilean market.

Subscribe to our WhatsApp channel and receive the latest news from the international avocado market every week:https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vb81Exv1yT2Eff1Hjo2w