Peru anticipates an avocado season similar to or slightly smaller than that of 2025.

Peru's main Hass avocado campaign this year is shaping up to have a gradual start, potentially extending into August and even part of September, with an expected volume that, in the best-case scenario, would be similar to that of 2025. This was stated by Alfredo Lira, executive director of AgroLeal, when analyzing the expected behavior of the Peruvian supply in a season marked by climatic factors, adjustments in harvest parameters, and an increasingly segmented view of the country's production.

Regarding the total projected volume for the season, Lira indicated that he does not believe there will be an increase this year. He explained that, in the most favorable scenario, the volume would be similar to that of 2025. However, he warned that there are already signs, among some large-volume producers, of a decrease in estimated yields. Along those lines, he indicated that his feeling is that Peru could end up with a slightly lower volume than last year.

According to the executive, this analysis should also be done with a more segmented approach than in previous seasons. He explained that it is no longer possible to view Peruvian exports as a single unit, since the country produces almost year-round from different regions. Therefore, he maintained that it is necessary to segment the volumes from Peru and understand more precisely how the different production zones behave within the export calendar.

How will Peru's avocado campaign begin in 2026?

Regarding the start of the campaign, Lira anticipated that it will not begin with a sudden surge in volume, but rather gradually. He explained that the fields are taking longer to reach adequate dry matter content due to weather conditions, which has slowed the progress toward the first harvests. He added that the increase in the minimum dry matter requirement, from 21.5% to 22.0%, will also delay the start of some harvests for some producers.

Regarding the season's duration, the CEO of AgroLeal explained that Peru's main growing season typically runs from May to July. However, he anticipated that it would extend again, as it did last season, into August and even some time into September. He indicated that some fields have adapted to these later harvest windows, which helps alleviate pressure during the peak season and allows for a better distribution of supply.

When will Peru ship avocados to the United States and what volume?

One of the season's focal points will also be the US market. On this point, Lira emphasized that California's decision regarding the start of its season will be important for Peru, given the current anticipation of its harvest. He explained that California is expected to have a similar volume to last year, or even slightly larger, around 145,000 metric tons.

However, he added that the difference compared to 2025 lies in the fact that, after the low prices observed in the first quarter, not much fruit has been harvested, so they would only just begin. In that scenario, Peru would play a complementary role in supplying that market and would begin shipping gradually, while prices in other destinations, mainly Europe, remain high.

Regarding the volume that Peru could allocate to the United States, Lira estimated that 30% of exports during the peak season would go to that market. This share would confirm the important role that the United States will continue to play in Peru's trade strategy, albeit with a gradual entry dynamic closely tied to California's performance and price conditions in other markets.

Thus, the main Peruvian campaign is projected to develop more slowly than in previous years, with no signs of strong volume growth and an extension that could keep shipments going into August and part of September. In this context, the performance of the different producing regions, compliance with the required dry matter content, and the evolution of the US market will emerge as key factors in monitoring the season's progress.