This is the analysis of Avobook CEO Sebastián de la Cuadra, who explains that weekly shipments will be in the range of 300 to 350 shipments, most of them to Europe, with volumes allocated to high domestic consumption being carefully managed to avoid saturating the market.

Since Chile began its campaign, it has been gradually filling the gap left by Peruvian fruit, especially in Europe, where Chilean avocados now hold the top market share (41%). Following rains and other setbacks that delayed the season's more rapid start, Chilean avocado shipments surged, reaching what the numbers indicate will be a peak that will not be repeated.

This is explained by Avobook CEO Sebastián de la Cuadra, based on data from this Weekly Report that manages statistics on the global avocado market, with monitoring of a large part of the markets and origins, as well as price analysis, with sources directly linked to the business.

After the strong start to the season in Chile, shipments from that country are now declining. Despite this, Chilean exports are expected to remain between 300 and 350 containers per week, primarily destined for Europe, which will receive between 200 and 250 of them.

But it will have to face a change in the scenario, because in the previous weeks Chilean fruit had faced a period with fewer players in Europe, a situation that is changing, as this market has begun to receive fruit from other origins, which is already showing some signs of saturation, which will impact prices.

“The markets have become saturated with fruit and prices are falling. Many importers have already reduced their orders, therefore, some producers in Chile don't want to sell their fruit right now,” explains Sebastián de la Cuadra, CEO of Avobook.

This scenario is what has influenced the decrease in the volume of fruit that Chile has decided to allocate to exports, in an origin that has a very high internal consumption, which usually amounts to almost 50% of production.

For this reason, the CEO of Avobook believes that, for the remainder of the season, Chile will not reach the level of shipments recorded during week 40, when it shipped 417 containers to various markets.

“We’re not going to see that high volume from week 40. There will be room for China, there will be room to continue shipping to Argentina. Those are the markets that Chile will be dominating, but they aren’t high-volume markets. And Europe will be shrinking. I think there’s still enough to ship, perhaps, until November. Now we’re seeing that smaller sizes are being demanded from Chile, because starting in November, the Moroccan fruit harvest begins, with larger sizes, less risk, a shorter journey, and better prices than the Chilean fruit. So, Chile is starting to lose that exclusivity it had for good fruit, after Peru’s exit from the market,” explains Sebastián de la Cuadra.

What can be expected of Chilean avocados in the United States?

In the case of shipments to the United States, an increase in Chilean shipments should not be expected, due - according to the CEO of Avobook - to "the high volume that exists in Mexico and lower prices."

“Mexico’s participation can reach almost total, it will continue to dominate that market at around 90-95% until Mexico starts to reduce its share, which could be in April and May,” he explains.

In fact, this week Mexican avocados account for 97% of that market, leaving Chile with 2% and few options to increase its share.

Regulate the harvests to supply the local market

Given this scenario, it is expected that Chilean fruit exports to Europe and the United States will decrease in the coming weeks and, at the same time, adjust its fruit harvests destined for the domestic market.

"It will continue with some markets like Asia and Argentina, and obviously the domestic market will be managed gradually to avoid saturating it and to have fruit available for local consumers until March. The European market will gradually close, and most likely, starting in December or January, we'll see the last shipments from Chile to the European market. Perhaps some supermarkets in the United States will have programs, but all of that will reduce exports. So I think the weeks with the highest volumes from Chile to other countries are already declining," he adds.