In 2025, avocado shipments to Europe reached unprecedented levels, marking a milestone for the sector. Between week 15 and week 30, ten weeks saw more than a thousand shipments, an unusual frequency in recent years.

According to Tomás de la Cuadra, an analyst at Avobook, this behavior contrasts sharply with previous seasons: “This year, from week 15 to week 30, there have been 10 weeks with volumes exceeding 1,000. This figure drops drastically compared to 2024, when there were only two weeks—weeks 15 and 21—and in 2023 there were no weeks with volumes exceeding 1,000, although there were multiple weeks with more than 950. Overall, 2023 had higher volume than 2024. Before 2022, there were no weeks with a volume exceeding 1,000.”

Peru, the driving force of the season

Peru's influence on these records is decisive. According to Víctor Ruete, Advisor at Tropical Millenium, during week 31 the country exported just over 20 million kilos of Hass avocados, a still high volume, although lower than in previous weeks. "The figure could be underestimated due to the holidays on July 28 and 29, so it is possible that a rebound will be recorded in week 32," he noted.

Of that total, 12.5 million kilos reached Europe, which could indicate that the season is entering a transition phase. However, Ruete cautions that it will be necessary to wait until week 33 or 34 to confirm this. The steepest decline is expected between weeks 34 and 35, when Peru's presence in the European market will begin to decrease rapidly. By September, a predominance of large sizes is expected, with a smaller proportion of medium sizes and a shortage of small sizes.

Regarding quality, Ruete points out that the fruit “is arriving with adequate levels of dry matter, which gives it good condition and the ability to wait a reasonable time before its commercialization, provided that the cold chain and post-harvest handling are maintained.”

According to the Peruvian Hass Avocado Producers and Exporters Association (ProHass), by week 25 the country had already exported 375,000 tons of Hass avocados, equivalent to 60% of the total projected for the season. The organization estimates that the European season will end around week 38, while exports to other markets will decrease significantly between weeks 34 and 36.

ProHass has also revised its annual projection downwards, placing it at 655,000 tons — 20% less than initially estimated in March — although this figure still represents growth of approximately 30% compared to 2024.

The combination of historically high volumes and Peru's prominence as the main source in recent weeks has created a unique scenario in Europe. The abundant supply is putting downward pressure on prices, but it also allows buyers to access high-quality fruit and schedule their sales with greater flexibility.

The industry's attention is now focused on confirming when shipments will begin to decline, a factor that will define the balance between supply and demand in the last quarter of the year and mark the end of an exceptional season.