The last week of 2024 ended with a notable decrease in the flow of avocados to the United States. During week 52, 892 shipments arrived via trucks and containers, marking a 27% drop compared to the previous week. This performance reflects the challenges inherent to the season, influenced by holidays and disruptions in operations in the main exporting countries.

Ninety-four percent of shipments originated in Mexico, followed by 5% from Colombia and a minimal share from the Dominican Republic, which did not reach 1%. However, the decrease was significant for the two main suppliers. Mexico reduced its shipments from 45 million pounds to 33 million, representing a 25% drop. Colombia also experienced a significant decline, falling from almost 3 million pounds to 1.9 million, a 36% decrease.

According to Sergio Paz's analysis for Avobook, exporters tried to compensate for these limitations by increasing harvest volumes. However, the results from week 52 confirmed expectations of a challenging period. This situation could repeat itself in the first week of the new year, particularly with the harvest suspension on January 1st.

This scenario becomes even more relevant with the Super Bowl, an event that represents the annual peak in avocado consumption in the United States. The first weeks of January will be key to gauging how demand and shipments to this market evolve.

Regarding prices, large and medium sizes, from 32 to 40, saw a 7% increase, reaching an average of $72.50 per 25-pound box. This level surpasses the peak observed in week 26 of 2024, when the price reached $71. To put this in perspective, in the first week of the year, these same boxes were priced at $42.

The current dynamics, atypical for this time of year, generate uncertainty about whether prices will stabilize or continue to rise, especially considering the pressure of demand prior to the Super Bowl.

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