Peru 's withdrawal from the European market opens a transition period in which Chile and Colombia will take the lead, while prices show stability in large sizes and increases in small ones.

The European avocado market is going through crucial weeks. Peru, which has been the main player this season, is beginning to withdraw, leaving room for other origins that will have to maintain supply and balance prices in a context marked by variations in size and adjustments in demand.

According to an analysis by Víctor Ruete, advisor to Tropical Millenium, a widespread shortage is not expected, but rather a “selective tightening of supply by size.” He specifically warns that the risk of shortages is concentrated in sizes 18 and smaller, which are already showing signs of strain, while “in larger sizes from 10 to 16, availability remains ample, although with greater challenges in terms of dry matter content during ripening.”

Data from Avobook confirms that Peru has been reducing its shipments in recent weeks. The peak was recorded in week 26, with approximately 860 containers arriving in Europe. Even so, 2025 export volumes have surpassed those of 2024, creating a larger supply buffer in the first part of the season.

Regarding prices, the signals are mixed. Ruete maintains that September shows a stable spot market, with some increases depending on the size: “Large sizes 10 to 16 remain stable due to greater availability, holding firm when quality supports it, but without increases; while medium and small sizes 18 and below are rising due to limited supply and promotional commitments.” The Avobook team adds that, compared to week 37 of 2024, this year large sizes are priced lower, while small sizes are enjoying better pricing.

The baton: Chile and Colombia in the lead

The transition will be concentrated between weeks 39 and 44, when the mix of origins is reconfigured. According to Ruete, after Peru's exit, the market will reorganize with Chile leading the way and Colombia regaining its main position, allowing for greater stability towards the end of October or the beginning of November. "We expect a gradual normalization of prices towards the end of October, when the mix of origins and the size curve balance out and Morocco begins to appear," he emphasizes.

In this new scenario, Chile is already emerging as the leader in Europe, with peak shipments of up to 6 million kilos in a single week, although with a temporary slowdown in week 38 due to the National Holidays. Colombia, meanwhile, will shift from exporting less common varieties—with shipments of around 2 million kilos per week—to its main focus, contributing a range of sizes, although predominantly 20 and smaller. Other players will have more secondary roles: East Africa and South Africa will provide consistent exports, but without large volumes; Morocco will join the market from late October or November; Israel is expected to begin exporting Hass in November, contingent on the political and commercial climate; and Mexico will remain focused on the United States, with only a complementary presence in Europe.

The European avocado market is therefore heading into a period of adjustment where the key will be managing the transition between origins and sizes. Peru's exit opens the door to a more prominent role for South America and the Mediterranean, with all eyes on how supply and prices will respond in the final stretch of the year.