Shipments to the US rise after the post-Super Bowl drop, while Mexico remains in the lead

The U.S. market closed the eighth week of the year with a significant increase in avocado import volumes, reaching 1,487 containers. This 21% increase compared to the previous week marks the second consecutive week of growth, following the decline recorded in week 6, an expected fluctuation due to the Super Bowl. Compared to last year, the volume is virtually the same, with only a 1% difference.

In terms of market share, Mexico continues to dominate with a resounding 87% of the supply, followed by Colombia and California, whose volumes are nearly equal, at 5.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Chile and the Dominican Republic complete the market with smaller shares. The growth in export volume from Mexico is particularly noteworthy, showing a 23% increase compared to the previous week, solidifying its position as the leading supplier.

However, this increase in supply has been accompanied by a general drop in prices, particularly affecting smaller sizes. Sizes 70 and 84 saw a 21% decrease, while larger sizes experienced less pronounced declines, not exceeding 4%.

In his latest column, analyst Sergio Paz highlighted the intermittent dynamic between demand and prices, which has generated constant market fluctuations. Following the Super Bowl, both demand and prices declined, but rebounded during the second week of February. However, at the beginning of weeks 8 and 9, demand fell again, dragging prices down and creating uncertainty among retailers.

For his part, Antonio Villaseñor warns of an oversupply of small-sized fruit, which has led to a significant price difference between sizes. Currently, the gap between a size 48 and a size 70 fruit reaches almost $40, which could cause market instability.

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