At Avobook, we analyze the possible scenarios generated by the upward curve of Mexican avocado volumes available for export, considering the current reality in the United States (with which NAFTA must be renegotiated) and the difficulties of returning to other markets, should that be necessary.

The Mexican avocado industry is experiencing a paradox that only the giants of agricultural exports truly understand. While it's consolidating a record season—with an estimated export volume of nearly 1.3 million tons, mostly destined for the United States—the sector is beginning to confront itself with a potentially uncomfortable question: what will happen if volume continues to grow year after year in a market already showing signs of saturation and historically low prices?

The hypothesis is not theoretical. It is practical, commercial, and timely. Mexico remains, by a wide margin, the world's largest producer and exporter of avocados, but its extremely high dependence on the U.S. market—which for years was a strength—is now a source of reflection on how to avoid impacting prices due to the abundance of fruit, unless this is accompanied by a proportional increase in consumption.

All of this is accompanied by a scene where more players are trying to consolidate their commercial space: California, making decisions to grow and defend the advantages of its locality; with the second giant, Peru, arriving with fruit at key moments; and Colombia wanting to take advantage of its logistical advantage to reach the United States.

Avobook shared this reflection with Antonio Villaseñor, an executive at the exporting company AztecAvo, who acknowledges that the increased volume is forcing a rethink of strategic decisions that seemed settled. Returning to Europe or Asia, markets that Mexico abandoned when the United States absorbed virtually all of its supply, resurfaces in the conversation, albeit without triumphalism.

“It does make us think about that,” he admits, but immediately puts on the brakes: logistics remains the major Achilles' heel.

“Unfortunately, the logistics remain very complex. Since it's a perishable product, if we don't have a well-organized logistics system with adequate transit times to ensure a quality product arrives in the necessary condition to perform well in the market, it will be very difficult. That's what's limiting us the most. I think we have considered it, but the risk is still very high. Until we overcome these limitations, I believe Mexico will remain largely excluded from markets that are too far away,” he says.

Adding to this difficulty is a side effect of Mexico's own withdrawal. By reducing their presence in distant markets, shipping companies redirected their capacity to other businesses and other routes.

“Getting them back will be costly,” warns Villaseñor, explaining that logistics services respond to sustained demand, not to short-term fluctuations. In other words, it's not enough for an exporter to simply want to return: the entire system would have to be aligned.

Tons per hectare

Meanwhile, supply-side pressure continues to grow. In this case, it's not due to new plantings. Some will be added to those certified for export to the United States, and the main reason is the need to improve productivity.

Today, the average yield in programs geared toward the United States ranges between 8.5 and 9 tons per hectare, figures that Villaseñor acknowledges as insufficient and stagnant for years. The drought of previous seasons hit hard, and only now, with a more favorable rainfall pattern, is there a window of opportunity to recover efficiency.

“There’s a lot of work to be done on the productivity side. At the Association, what we’re discussing is that we don’t need to plant more. We just need to make what we have more productive. Obviously, this will make the product more efficient, and we’ll also have a greater supply to meet market demand,” he explains.

If that happens, the logical consequence will be even more fruit available. And then, the dilemma of the markets will become unavoidable.

Renegotiation of the FTA

In this scenario, another decisive factor emerges: the renegotiation of the Free Trade Agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada, scheduled for 2026. It is undoubtedly a more complex process than initially expected, considering a more protectionist climate and clear signals from the United States of wanting to redefine—or even bilateralize—the agreement, which currently includes Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

Although avocados are not out of that conversation, one advantage for avocados is that the United States does not cover year-round demand with its local production, both in volume and harvest windows, and therefore depends structurally on Mexican supply.

However, one element that shouldn't be overlooked is what its competitors are thinking. California, in particular, plans to increase its own production and strongly defend its domestic market position against Mexican expansion.

“We’ve seen that California is working hard to protect its origin. Apparently, they’re also projecting that they’ll double their current production, due to the possibility of moving some plantations from Southern California to areas a little further north of Los Angeles, where the water supply seems to be better, mitigating the impacts of climate change. But we’re prepared to remain the number one promoter of avocados in the U.S. market,” Villaseñor points out.

For industry experts in the global avocado sector, understanding Mexico's current situation is not an academic exercise. It is key to anticipating trends, assessing opportunities, and calibrating risks in a market where the leader still sets the pace, but no longer walks alone.