The remarkable growth in Peruvian avocado volumes is already beginning to have an impact on the European market. Experts warn of price pressures, logistical risks, and the limited absorption capacity of other destinations.

The European avocado market is experiencing a period of high tension. With Peruvian exports projected to grow by 37% by 2025, the impact on prices and logistics in the sector is beginning to be felt and will intensify in the coming weeks.

According to estimates from ProHass and PromPerú, this year's Peruvian avocado export campaign will be significantly larger than that of 2024, following several cycles marked by adverse weather events. Peru is also expected to ship approximately 750,000 tons worldwide during 2025, with Europe as the main destination.

Through week 18, 3,788 shipments to Europe have already been recorded, a figure almost identical to that of the same period last year (3,810). However, the growth rate has been constant and sustained. “Weekly volume only surpassed that of the previous year in week 16, and has been increasing throughout, unlike 2024, which experienced a couple of dips,” explains Tomás de la Cuadra, data analyst at Avobook.

According to their projections, this curve is expected to continue until week 25, with weeks that could reach up to 850 shipments, which will put pressure on the continent's logistics and trade chain.

Prices under pressure

The increase in volume will almost inevitably impact prices. Sebastián de la Cuadra, CEO of Avobook, anticipates this: “As volume increases, the price should fall.” However, he clarifies that the magnitude of this drop will depend on key commercial factors. “It will depend on the speed with which importers and distributors can move the fruit commercially. When there is no increase in warehouse inventory, volumes can flow more easily without the need to sell at low prices out of desperation,” he points out.

However, De la Cuadra emphasizes that maintaining stable prices in this context will be difficult: “What would complicate the situation is if logistical delays—like those that have occurred in Panama and Rotterdam—caused two weeks of fruit arriving at the same time. That would make the imbalance more noticeable.”

This phenomenon is not theoretical. There are already signs of pressure in the market. “The effects are already being felt, although they will be felt more strongly with each passing week. This will continue until September, with the August shipments,” he adds.

Later but more intense campaign

Although the start of 2025 has been slower compared to 2024, the cumulative volume will grow strongly in the second half of the season. “It’s been a slower start than last year, with less volume per week. The difference is that this year Peru is coming in with 37% more total volume, so what wasn’t shipped in previous weeks will be shipped in the coming weeks, making a total much higher than in other years,” Sebastián explains.

Indeed, two-thirds of the volume shipped by Peru up to week 18 has been destined for Europe. Although this proportion is similar to that of the previous year, the other markets show significant variations. “Chile had a 14% share in 2024 and today it has 4%. The opposite is true for the United States, which went from 3% to 8%,” explains Tomás de la Cuadra.

Are there viable alternatives to Europe?

With Europe absorbing most of the volume, redirecting fruit to other destinations isn't a simple solution. Sebastián de la Cuadra explains it clearly: “The other markets represent smaller volumes for Peru, so increasing the volume to those markets would also cause the price to fall. China, Chile, Argentina… they all have their limits.”

The United States appears to be the only attractive option from a commercial standpoint. “The best alternative is the USA, where prices are generally better than in Europe these days. But it will depend on the volume that North American importers want to take. Historically, supermarket chains are the ones that buy the most from Peru in the USA,” concludes the CEO of Avobook.

A growing industry

With this growth, Peru consolidates its position as the world's second-largest exporter of avocados, second only to Mexico. "The Peruvian industry has become a very important international player," ProHass President José Antonio Castro recently stated.

The truth is that the speed at which different markets manage to absorb the growing volume will define whether this expansion will be synonymous with opportunity or instability for the global avocado trade.