Extreme temperatures recorded at the end of July, coupled with other adverse weather events since March, have drastically reduced Moroccan avocado production for the 2025/26 season. The forecast has fallen from up to 160,000 tons to just 80,000, anticipating record prices and a reconfiguration of sales methods.

The avocado sector in Morocco is facing one of its worst seasons after an intense heat wave struck the Gharb region from July 28 to 30, with temperatures reaching up to 49°C. Abdelkrim Allaoui, president of the Producers' Association, noted that the trees could not withstand the heat and lost a large portion of their fruit. This situation is compounded by the frosts and torrential rains in March, which had already affected flowering. As a result, the production forecast has been halved, with an estimated 80,000 tons compared to the initial 140,000-160,000 tons.

The drop in volume has caused prices to rise before the harvest, already reaching 23 dirhams per kilo for fruit still on the tree. Producers expect the start of the season to begin at a minimum of 30 dirhams, almost double last year's price. Furthermore, the harvest is expected to be delayed, especially for Hass avocados, which may be harvested mainly between the end of January and March, when international prices are higher.

Commercially, the changes will also be significant: sales will be conducted exclusively by weight, abandoning the fixed-price per plot system. To mitigate losses, producers will have to invest in irrigation and fertilization to obtain larger fruit, which will increase costs. The shortage has already sparked the interest of European importers, who are rushing to secure supplies in a highly competitive market with rising prices.

Source: portalfruticola.com