Mexico regains leadership in avocado exports to the US as prices narrow between large and medium sizes

At the close of week 27, the U.S. avocado import market saw a 9% increase in total volume, with an estimated 1,564 truckloads and containers received. This surge marks a significant shift in trade dynamics, particularly highlighting Mexico's recovery as the leading supplier, having regained over 50% of the market share.

Mexico saw a significant rebound, with a 20% increase in shipments compared to the previous week. Peru showed similar growth, also close to 20%, reaching 26% of the US market. In contrast, California's share fell to 15% after a 21% drop in volume, while Colombia, with the remaining 7%, also experienced a slight contraction of 9%.

Regarding price behavior, the market reflected signs of a seasonal change. Larger sizes, particularly from size 48 and up, experienced a 20% price drop. On the other hand, medium and small sizes showed increases: size 60 rose 12%, size 70 10%, and size 84 9%. This has significantly narrowed the price gap between large and medium sizes, which are now at very similar levels.

Our columnist Sergio Paz, assessing the initial yields of the "crazy fruit" harvest, noted that production will consist mainly of sizes 48, 60, and 70, with a near-total absence of sizes 40 and larger. Despite an apparent slowdown in sales, Gary Clevenger pointed out that demand for avocados in California remains strong and stable, especially in the western United States.

Finally, Antonio Villaseñor, also a columnist for Avocomments, highlighted a milestone for the sector: last week marked the official start of the 2025-2026 season, with a preliminary export estimate reaching 1,050,000 tons.

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