According to the USDA, the country is expected to reach 3.03 million tons of production next year, driven by favorable conditions and strong international demand. Exports are also projected to grow by 5%.

Mexico is poised to achieve a new record in its avocado industry in 2025, with an estimated production of 3.03 million tons, representing a 3% increase over 2024, according to the latest annual report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This growth is attributed to favorable weather conditions, improved agricultural practices, and sustained international demand, particularly from the United States.

The cultivated area will remain stable at around 256,500 hectares, influenced by stricter enforcement of land-use regulations and the implementation of the deforestation-free certification program in Michoacán. This state continues to lead national production with 68% of the total, followed by Jalisco (12%) and the State of Mexico (5%).

In 2024, Michoacán saw its avocado production fall by 1% due to weather factors and sanctions against orchards on deforested land, while Jalisco's production grew by 5%, boosted by good water availability and high export demand. Only Michoacán and Jalisco are authorized to export avocados to the United States, although other states supply international markets and meet domestic consumption.

Exports on the rise despite logistical challenges
Mexican avocado exports are projected to reach 1.48 million tons in 2025, a 5% increase compared to 2024. In 2024, exports fell by 9% compared to 2023, impacted by high logistics costs and a more erratic harvest. Even so, the U.S. remained the primary destination, absorbing over 80% of shipments, followed by Canada (7%) and Japan (3%).

Despite the recent announcement by the US government regarding a new 10% tariff on its trading partners, Mexican avocados will continue to enter with a 0% tariff, provided they comply with the USMCA rules.

The Super Bowl remains a key event for exports, with the peak season concentrated between December and February, accounting for more than 35% of annual shipments. In 2024, Mexico supplied approximately 88% of U.S. avocado imports.

Currently, the Hass avocado is the most sought-after variety due to its flavor, texture, and shelf life. In 2024, it was Mexico's third most exported agricultural product, behind beer and tequila, and ahead of berries and tomatoes.

Starting in July 2024, the USDA modified its monitoring system, allowing remote monitoring of orchards certified for export to the U.S., which could optimize processes and reduce logistics costs.

Source: portalfruticola.com