Mexico boosts avocado shipments to the US while arrivals from Colombia fall

During the close of week 24, the U.S. avocado market recorded an estimated 1,614 shipments, representing a 6% increase over the previous week and 18% above the volume received during the same period last year. This increase is primarily driven by a rise in exports from Mexico, which account for 59% of the current supply.

In terms of distribution by origin, Mexico leads by a wide margin, followed by Peru with 18%, California with 17%, and Colombia with the remaining 6%. While volumes from Peru and California remained relatively stable with slight decreases of 3% to 4%, Colombia experienced a significant drop of 27% compared to the previous week. In contrast, Mexico saw a remarkable rebound of 19%, consolidating its market dominance.

Regarding prices, the general trend was downward, with reductions of around 2% to 4% in most sizes, except for size 60, which showed a slight increase of 3%. However, price behavior could be affected by the sustained increase in inventories.

Sergio Paz, an industry analyst, warns that inventory levels have reached figures similar to those seen in the days leading up to the Super Bowl, although with one key difference: there is currently fruit from four different origins, each with very different post-harvest characteristics, which adds complexity to product handling.

Gary Clevenger notes that many retailers in the western United States are choosing to rely exclusively on Californian fruit, anticipating a significant reduction in Mexican shipments. This strategy could strain the market as Father's Day approaches on June 15th, and as construction begins for the Fourth of July celebrations—times of year when demand historically increases considerably.

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