Colombia is at a key juncture in the competitive international Hass avocado market. With significant growth in certified hectares, a steady pace of exports, and a clear vision of establishing itself as a reliable supplier in the United States, the country is moving forward decisively.

However, the 2025 outlook presents significant challenges: global oversupply, atypical movements from Mexico, and pressure from other origins such as Peru and California have generated a saturation of the North American market, limiting placement opportunities and affecting profitability.

According to Manuel Michel, managing director of the Colombia Avocado Board, Colombia has recently reached the peak of its off-season, registering export volumes of nearly 5 million pounds per week to the United States. This export dynamism, however, is not permanent: “This volume will begin to decrease as the off-season ends in the coming weeks,” Michel explained.

From the business perspective, Ricardo Mejía, general manager of Fruity Green, agrees with this view, noting that while Colombia could still capitalize on some opportunities during this period, fruit availability is rapidly declining. “The Traviesa season has three or four weeks left, and although the Main season is beginning, early fruit is very scarce. Some may be available, but not in the volumes we saw in the last five or six weeks,” he stated.

However, the country is not facing an abrupt decline, but rather a carefully planned transition: “Colombia is preparing for a smooth transition into the main harvest season. This will ensure a continuous supply and help maintain Colombia’s presence in the U.S. market as a year-round supplier,” Michel noted.

An unexpectedly saturated market: how does it affect Colombia?

The current market dynamics, in the words of María Isabel Gaviria, commercial director of Coltropicos, have been unusual and much more complex than expected. “Mexico already began its harvest a couple of weeks ago, with large sizes representing almost 50% of its volume, and it did so with a strong entry from the start,” she explained.

This is compounded by the high volume coming from Peru, as well as the supply from California and Colombia, which has led to significant saturation. “This makes the market very tight in terms of receiving further volume. We have to wait until Peru finishes its exports, California finishes its exports, and only Mexico remains to recover some breathing room,” Gaviria warns.

From Fruity Green's perspective, the situation is also critical. Ricardo Mejía states that Peru has severely impacted Colombia's ability to place its fruit in the US and Europe. “Peru is killing us badly. We hadn't felt it before in the United States, but this year they made a very aggressive commercial effort and drove us out of the market five or six weeks ago, and we're still feeling the effects,” he asserted.

Colombia has not remained passive in the face of this situation. According to Corpohass figures updated as of July 21, 2025, the country already has 620 properties certified for export to the U.S., equivalent to 16,005 hectares. This figure represents a 20% increase compared to March, when 14,277 hectares were reported.

Although Mejía did not specify an exact figure, he estimates that the range could be between 13,000 and 19,000 hectares, and calculates that, with an average yield of 8 tons per hectare, the potential volume is becoming increasingly significant. However, he also cautioned that this growth must be accompanied by a solid commercial strategy, especially during periods of high competition.

This growth reflects the sector's drive to consolidate its position in international markets, but it also brings a challenge: greater volume demands greater market intelligence to ensure timely and profitable placement.

A 50-50 balance between the US and Europe?: a medium-term goal

One of the goals the Colombian avocado sector has pursued is to achieve a more balanced distribution between the United States and European markets. Michel points out that this year Colombia has managed to ship an average of 44% of its Hass avocado volume to the US, with weekly variations between 40% and 50%, reflecting a significant and stable presence.

However, the export sector takes a more realistic view. Gaviria acknowledges that achieving a 50-50 balance remains a significant challenge, especially since this year's volume projections in the United States were not met due to market saturation from fruit of other origins. Thus, although progress has been notable, Europe will continue to be the primary destination for Colombian fruit through 2025.

Ricardo Mejía agrees with that diagnosis, but offers a forward-looking perspective: “I believe this market will reach that point quickly. Perhaps not in 2025, which could end at 75-25, but by 2026 it could adjust to 60-40, and by 2027 we could see a true 50-50. In fact, in three or four years, the United States may even surpass Europe as the main destination,” he anticipates.

Both Michel and Gaviria agree that the increased supply of avocados from multiple countries has put downward pressure on prices. “Avocado prices in the U.S. have decreased in recent months, reflecting the impact of higher volumes from multiple origins,” Michel explained.

Gaviria adds that this pressure was clearly noticeable during the Traviesa season, when high volumes from Peru affected the placement of Colombian fruit and generated great price volatility.

Faced with this reality, Colombia has begun to redouble its efforts to position itself not only as a supplier, but also as a producer of premium avocados. Gaviria emphasizes: “The challenge lies in positioning Colombian avocados as a premium fruit, with logistical and freshness advantages, given that we can reach them in less time and with a longer window throughout the year.”

Additionally, he highlighted a key strategic approach to mitigating oversupply: product diversification, especially in processed formats such as pulp and guacamole made with HPP (High Pressure Processing) technology. “We are investing in these formats with our new plant, as they allow us to add value to the fruit during periods of high supply,” he explained.

Beyond volume, the long-term key for Colombia lies in consolidating its reputation as a reliable and consistent supplier. Gaviria emphasizes that, while progress has been made in quality and certifications, significant challenges remain regarding ripening, product consistency, and harvest planning, requiring improved coordination between producers and exporters.

In line with this, Mejía warns that strengthening relationships with buyers and supermarkets will be essential to compete in an environment with more origins, less differentiation, and high competition. “That’s where Corpohass needs to come in, working with the distributors and building lasting relationships, because Europe has increasingly more competitors—Morocco, Israel, Malaga, Portugal—and in the US, Peru is gaining ground on us. If we don’t consolidate these relationships, we’re going to fall behind,” he concluded.

Colombia no longer has a clear "window" to exploit in the United States market. The environment has changed: there are more players, greater volume, and less predictability. However, the country does possess the technical, productive, and logistical capabilities to remain a key player in that market.

The challenge will be to differentiate themselves through quality, logistical speed, and added value, while working to consolidate their reputation and strengthen strategic business relationships. In a market that now demands not only fruit, but also reliability, maturity, and integrated solutions, Colombia still has much to gain… if it adapts intelligently.