The 2025/26 Moroccan avocado season is starting with lower production due to the extreme weather conditions experienced between March and July. Even so, the introduction of new plantations and the sector's commercial strategy will allow the country to maintain its presence in key international markets.

Morocco's Hass avocado season, which begins in mid-November, is marked by a combination of weather challenges and increased production. After a season of extreme temperatures, erratic rainfall, and frost, the sector is adjusting its production expectations, although it is finding some balance thanks to the entry into production of new crops.

Abdellah El Yamlahi, president of the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA), explains that the climate impact was especially severe in the northern producing regions. “Between March and July 2025, extreme temperatures were recorded—up to 40°C in Kenitra and almost 49°C in Moulay Bousselham—along with episodes of frost and heavy rain during flowering. This resulted in premature fruit drop in many orchards,” he details. As a consequence, initial projections were revised downwards: “The estimate for the 2025/26 season is around 80,000 tons, compared to previous figures of up to 140,000 or 160,000 tons.”

This reduction confirms the direct impact of the weather on future supply and creates uncertainty about the volumes available for harvest and export. “The heat wave and climate disruptions have a clearly negative effect on supply, and that influences prices and shipment planning,” El Yamlahi adds.

From the business sector, Yassin Chaib, manager of the exporting company Mavoca, confirms the extent of the losses. “We estimate that between 20 and 30% of the fruit was lost during the heat wave we had in June,” he says. However, he agrees that the entry of new plantations into production will help balance the final result. “I think we’ll be almost the same as last year, taking into account the new farms and the new production,” he states.

Despite the weather damage, the expansion of cultivated land is mitigating the drop in the harvest. In the last five years, the avocado-growing area in Morocco has doubled, increasing from approximately 6,000 hectares in 2020 to nearly 12,000 in 2025. “Large areas are already coming into production, and this will allow us to maintain levels close to last year’s,” El Yamlahi points out. Although there are no official figures on the exact contribution of the new plantings, it is estimated that they could add between 5,000 and 10,000 additional tons.

The Moroccan sector continues to concentrate most of its production on the Hass variety, which represents around 90% of the total. However, varietal options—such as Lamb Hass or Maluma—are being studied to extend the season and adapt to different demands in the European market.

Effects on the European market

Approximately 90% of Moroccan avocados are destined for export. With a projected production of around 80,000 tons, the exportable volume will be lower than last season. “This could mean less Moroccan fruit available at the start of the season, which could boost prices, but also create the risk of losing market share to competitors like Peru, Colombia, or Israel,” warns El Yamlahi.

Yassin Chaib adds: “We’re seeing the last of the fruit from Peru and Chile, and the markets are oversaturated with so much fruit from so many origins.” In this context, the behavior of the European market will be crucial. “Ultimately, the final customer calls the shots: Europe sets the prices, not the Moroccan producer or exporter,” he maintains.

Faced with a tight supply and intense competition, Moroccan exporters have adopted more selective strategies. El Yamlahi points out that the harvest and delivery schedule is a key factor: “The start of the season in Morocco, in mid-November, is crucial to securing high prices before other sources enter the market in force. Exporters must carefully decide when to harvest and when to bring their product to market.”

Size management has also become essential. Although total volume may remain the same, the market shows a preference for smaller sizes, while larger sizes tend to be oversupplied. “Quality and presentation are critical to maintaining the reputation of Moroccan origin,” El Yamlahi points out.

The strategic approach also includes market diversification. While Europe remains the primary destination—with Spain, France, and the Netherlands as traditional recipients—Morocco is looking to expand its reach to Turkey, the Scandinavian countries, Ukraine, Poland, and Canada, as well as Arab markets such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia. “The goal is to reduce our dependence on the European Union and strengthen our presence in new destinations,” says the MAVA leader.

Beyond the current campaign, the Moroccan avocado sector faces structural challenges that could define its future. One of these is the pressure on water resources. Avocado cultivation requires large volumes of water, and in regions where temperatures rise every year, water management becomes critical. “It is a central issue for the sustainability of production,” acknowledges El Yamlahi, who warns that costs and environmental regulations could become more stringent if progress is not made on technical solutions and responsible management policies.

Another challenge is maintaining a balance between quantity and quality. Previous campaigns have shown that peak volumes can lead to price drops or size issues, damaging the product's image. "Success isn't just about exporting more, but about guaranteeing good-sized fruit, free of aesthetic defects, and with consistent quality," he emphasizes.

A strategic window

Geographical proximity to Europe remains one of the greatest assets of Moroccan avocados. Short transit times allow them to reach the market with fresh fruit and reduce logistical costs compared to Latin American competitors. “This advantage must continue to be exploited; it is part of the country's export identity,” emphasizes El Yamlahi.

However, this same proximity necessitates maintaining a precise launch window. The start of the campaign, around the second half of November, is the most critical moment: there is less competition and better prices, but also greater risk if volumes are insufficient or if European markets are saturated.

Looking ahead to the 2025/26 season, the Moroccan avocado sector is navigating a balance of caution and optimism. The combination of adverse weather conditions, global competition, and pressure on natural resources creates a challenging environment. However, the growth in planted area, the diversification of export markets, and the professionalization of commercial strategies are enabling the sector to maintain stability and move forward.

“The year will be difficult, but not catastrophic,” Yassin Chaib summarizes. “We will continue fighting the same battle as every year: adjusting our prices, maintaining quality, and responding to market demands.”

In an environment where nature imposes limits and competition intensifies, Morocco seeks to consolidate its role as a solid and predictable player in the global avocado supply. The 2025/26 season will be a new test of resilience for a country that has learned to combine expansion, strategy, and adaptation as pillars of its agricultural growth.