The avocado industry in Morocco is experiencing a season marked by lower volumes, but with positive expectations for the next production cycle. This is according to Abdellah Elyamlahi, president of the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA), an organization that brings together the main players in the country's export sector.

The current campaign, which runs until March, is progressing less dynamically than the previous one. “This year’s campaign is going more slowly than last year’s,” says Elyamlahi. Comparing export volumes so far with those of the previous cycle, the decrease is around 40%. If this trend continues, the final figure could be between 70,000 and 80,000 tons.

The leader attributes this contraction primarily to climatic factors that occurred during the flowering stage. “Due to the intense heat during flowering, a lot of small fruit fell to the ground because of the very strong sun,” he explains. The loss of blossoms and the fruit drop reduced the yield potential, which now affects the final result of the season.

Currently, Morocco has around 12,000 hectares in production. However, the age structure of the orchards suggests a significant increase in the coming years. “If everything goes well for the next season, 2026-2027, Morocco could easily produce 150,000 tons,” says Elyamlahi. Many young farms are entering full production, and others will reach peak yields, which could significantly increase the volume per hectare if weather conditions are favorable.

Firm domestic market and exports concentrated in Europe

Beyond production trends, one of the most significant phenomena in Morocco is the strengthening of domestic consumption. According to the president of MAVA, the local market has gained prominence and, at certain times of the season, even surpasses exports in terms of price.

“The local market sometimes pays almost 50 cents to a euro more than exports, especially when there is less fruit available in February, March, and April,” he explains. This trend intensifies during Ramadan, when consumption increases due to the tradition of incorporating avocados into post-fasting dishes. “When people break their fast, they consume a lot of avocados. That can help raise prices,” he adds.

At certain stages of the campaign, the domestic market can absorb up to 20% of total production, consolidating itself as a relevant pillar for the sector.

In terms of exports, Europe remains the predominant destination. France, the Netherlands, and Germany account for the largest volumes, while Spain has reduced its share this year due to its own fruit availability. “We are shipping to almost all of Europe, mainly France, the Netherlands, and Germany,” Elyamlahi points out, confirming the strong reliance on the European market during the winter window.

Climate projections and caution

Regarding the upcoming season, the sector maintains a cautious stance. Flowering begins in March, and the critical months for determining production potential will be May, June, July, and August, when high temperatures can again affect fruit set and development.

“At the moment, we can’t say anything about the next season,” Elyamlahi cautions. However, the overall tone is one of cautious optimism. If weather conditions are favorable and the young plantations reach their full potential, Morocco could double its current volumes in the medium term.

The performance of the Moroccan industry will be crucial for balancing the European supply this winter. With a well-established acreage and an increasingly active domestic market, the country is positioning itself as a key player in the global avocado market, although its immediate future will continue to depend largely on the weather.