The United States government has suspended avocado imports from Michoacán, Mexico. According to international media reports, the issue behind this decision is not related to the behavior of producers and exporters, but rather to a security incident involving two Mexican USDA inspectors, which local authorities are already addressing.

Undoubtedly, this is a conflict that was not on the industry map and it generates significant impacts, which will depend on how long it takes to unblock the exchange of fruit from the main supplier of that important market.

A suspension of avocado exports from Mexico to the United States could have significant consequences for the movement of product prices, mainly due to the depletion of inventories.

There is an important fact that helps us understand the magnitude of this situation: the inventory of fresh avocados in the United States is sufficient to cover a period of approximately one and a half weeks. Since prices are known to be highly sensitive to overstocking or shortages, it is anticipated that prices could rise by around 20%, and in the worst-case scenario, by up to 50%, depending on how long Mexican avocados are unable to enter the U.S. market.

Analyzing the current figures, some information suggests there's room to mitigate the impact of the restrictions: as our columnist Antonio Villaseñor explains, there's still Mexican fruit in stock. It's understood that everything is in place so that, as soon as the restrictions are lifted, trucks carrying enough fruit will be dispatched to address the shortage that may have arisen during the lockdown.

Everything seems to indicate that the suspension will not last many days.

However, if the situation doesn't unfold as expected, experience shows that North American demand will do whatever it takes to fill the gap. The United States could order all the available fruit from those origins that currently supplement Mexico's supply—namely, Peru and Colombia. There have even been instances where shipping by sea has been replaced by air freight.

At Avobook we are closely monitoring the evolution of this news, which is undoubtedly having repercussions in the global avocado market.