In a conversation with Avobook, avocado market expert Alfredo Lira explains how the new Peruvian campaign will unfold, projecting a slight increase but with better annual distribution.

Engineer Alfredo Lira outlines Peru's upcoming avocado season, sharing seven key insights into what lies ahead. One of the driving forces will be the new port of Chancay, a crucial hub for improving trade with China and the rest of Asia, as well as opening opportunities in the Middle East.

Furthermore, he explains that consolidating exports to Chile will remain key, and notes that there is interest in Europe in integrating the value chain, with buyers interested in joining the production, in partnership with Peruvian farmers or by investing in new crops.

Their projection anticipates a slight increase in total export volume, but better distributed throughout the season. Below are the details of the seven key points Lira shared with Avobook.

1. Understanding the Peruvian avocado production landscape from north to south

“A serious problem exists in Olmos, with very low yields, as low as 3,500 kilos per hectare. Obviously, those fields will recover, but not as much as expected. There is a water shortage in the north and a problem with the dam, which hasn't allowed for the correct water allocations during the peak fruit set and initial growth stages. So, there will be a recovery, but it won't reach the production levels of previous years, which were around 14 or 15 tons per hectare in the Olmos area,” explains Lira.

This situation doesn't affect all fields. As he explains, some fields have wells, "which will be better off than those that haven't received water."

A partial recovery in production is expected in areas like La Libertad, where volumes will grow compared to last year, which had a significant drop in 2024 because the tree rested.

“I think there will be a larger volume. Not necessarily volumes over 25 tons, but between 18 and 20 tons,” he projects.

In the case of the central and southern coast of Peru, up to Ica, it corresponds to the "off" year, because "in the season that just ended there were significant volumes and it coincided with significant prices, which has helped many farmers, fortunately for them, but now they face a year with less production. It doesn't mean it's bad, but with less production."

2. Projection: increase of up to 10% and better distributed

“Overall, I think we could see a similar campaign to last year, perhaps with 5% more total volume on the coast, with the campaign in the Peruvian highlands always growing, which is already an important player. These fruits start in January and can go until March or April, and from there we reach September. Then we jump to September or October, because in Arequipa there is also a significant volume that is coming out a little later,” he explains.

One of the differences in the next campaign should be a better distribution of the fruit, without the disruptions of 2024.

Based on the calculations, the increase would represent a total of 550,000 tons of fruit traded from Peru.

“Last season we reached between 470,000 and 500,000 tons. Now we are talking about some 550,000. But there will no longer be a concentration of volume from May to July, but rather it will be more spread out throughout the year,” he explained.

3. Strategy: Grow in Asia and Chile, and don't lose sight of the United States.

However, there are three areas that will receive significant attention in the upcoming campaign, due to the impact of new fruit export alternatives, thanks to the opening of the new port of Chancay and the consolidation of fruit marketing in Chile.

In the case of the “Chanchay impact”, Lira explains that it will radically improve the outlook, reducing transit time to China and allowing for better distribution of the fruit in the Asian market, with higher quality, once it arrives at its destination.

“The transit time to China will change from 44 to 45 days to 26 or 27 days. And that will help not only the fruit go to China, but to the Asian market in general. To Japan, Thailand, and the other markets that are already open to Peruvian fruit. So that's where the first impact will come in, potentially freeing up some of the fruit that was going to Europe to go to Asia,” Lira explains.

Another key focus will be Chile, which acts as a safety valve to release excess volume: “I always say that when you send 600 containers a week from Peru to Europe during peak season, prices suffer. But in Chile, we've sent as many as 120 containers a week, and they're all snapped up. Even though Europe has 500 million inhabitants and Chile has 20 million, Chilean consumption is spectacular, and it's a very important safety valve.”

The third focus of the strategy will be the North American market, where Peruvian avocados are always welcome. “Unfortunately, they are used to drive down the price of Mexican and Californian avocados. Colombian avocados have remained slightly more expensive than Peruvian ones because they have a shorter journey and arrive in better condition,” explains Lira.

4. The “Chancay effect” in Asian distribution

“On a 45-day journey, it’s difficult to arrive with unripe fruit or the right oil content. That will be corrected, thanks to the new 25-day transit time. It will be easier for the Chinese market to receive suitable fruit. But not only China, but the entire Asian market,” he explains.

One of the important opportunities is in the Middle East, where the Arabian region is increasingly demanding avocados.

“We have an alliance with a group of distributors where we are shipping fruit from Mexico by plane to this entire Middle Eastern region at amazing prices, $10 per kilo. What we used to do from Europe can now be done from China. Today it becomes possible because the fruit will arrive in good quality. The port will be very important for the Peruvian industry,” says Alfredo Lira.

5. Weather: problems in the north, normalizing in the south

“They are facing very serious water problems, unlike anything they've ever seen before. The rains from the Ecuadorian rainforest or cloud forest usually flow down the rivers, but there's no water, and part of the mango harvest has been lost. This hasn't been seen in 100 years. In the case of Olmo and Piura, for example, decisions need to be made about drilling wells and building reservoirs, but these are large investments,” Lira warns.

However, in the south the weather conditions are within what is expected: "It is raining in La Sierra, the rivers are going down as they used to, in December, January, which was normal."

6. Strategy in Europe: buyers interested in planting avocados in Peru

In the fruit dispatch office, Alfredo Lira explains that the established routes will be maintained: some of the fruit arrives in England, and some of it stays there. Another portion goes to Rotterdam, and the rest enters Spain through Algeciras. Perhaps some Peruvian fruit will be ripened in Huelva or Málaga to supply the Spanish and French markets.

However, Lira says the biggest change is happening in the integration of the value chain: “The market and supermarkets are forcing brokers to integrate backward. If you ask a nursery how many avocado plants they've had orders for in recent years, they'll tell you zero. But that's starting to change, and there's interest among companies in the marketing sector in integrating backward. There are two ways: integrating with existing producers, or planting their own. I know two companies that want to integrate and two that want to buy land. And when I say buy or lease land in Peru, I'm talking about 400 or 500 hectares.”

7. Emerging markets of interest to Peruvian avocados

“There are other interesting markets, like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, that will also help. Costa Rica, too, and others in Central America, where there are a couple of countries that buy from us, and all of that adds up to diversifying our shipments,” he explained.