The lack of uniformity in the sizes of avocados in Mexico causes variations in their prices.
In the 2023-24 season, Mexican avocado production has experienced challenges in terms of size consistency, which has impacted prices in the United States market.
Ramón Paz, an avocado export analyst, projects that around 1.1 million tons of avocados will be shipped to the U.S. market this season. Although the volumes are considerable, the U.S. market reaction has been atypical compared to previous years.
Early varieties, particularly Méndez, have faced size issues due to an unusually warm and dry year, putting downward pressure on prices at the start of the season. However, larger avocados (nine to ten ounces) have seen price increases compared to previous years.
As the season has progressed, the situation has stabilized. Growers have stopped harvesting the smaller fruits, allowing them to grow larger on the tree.
Paz notes that current prices show significant improvements compared to last year. Larger avocados are selling for higher prices this year, while smaller fruit is maintaining similar prices to last year.
Regarding the outlook for the remainder of the season, Paz mentions that the situation with the sizes has created uncertainty. Despite a promising harvest, the market could face unpredictable price changes, especially for smaller sizes, whose price increase is still not guaranteed. Market behavior during the Super Bowl in January will be a key indicator for anticipating potential price increases in the absence of large and medium sizes.
