Mexico's export strategy shows a clear inclination towards the United States, a market that offers proximity and sustained growth, while shipments to Europe and Asia have lost momentum in recent years. According to Antonio Villaseñor (Aztecavo) and Ricardo Vega (Frutícola Velo), factors such as logistics and marketing schemes limit the viability of distant destinations, a trend reflected in the figures shared by Tomás de la Cuadra (Avobook).

For decades, Mexico has been the world's largest exporter of avocados. However, its marketing strategy has taken a clear turn: prioritizing the United States market over distant destinations like Europe or Asia. The reasons for this shift combine logistical, commercial, and quality factors, which have drastically reduced Mexico's presence in those markets.

Antonio Villaseñor, director of Aztecavo, explains that the business model in Mexico is directly related to this decline. “Packers buy the fruit from producers at a fixed price, and that price is passed on to importers in different destinations. When it comes to markets that require two to three weeks of transit, the risk becomes too high,” he states. For Villaseñor, the main problem is logistics: “Two to three weeks of transit put the product's quality at risk. The cost of quality is very high when it's inconsistent and you have many complaints; no exporter wants to take those risks.”

Ricardo Vega, general manager of Frutícola Velo, makes the same argument, noting that Mexico began losing ground in Europe in the late 1990s. He attributes this to the marketing structure.

“In Mexico, there is a strong domestic market with an apparent consumption of more than 9 kilos per capita, which means that the exporter must buy directly from the producer and assume all the marketing risks. In Europe, on the other hand, it is done on consignment, which represents too high a risk for those who send the fruit without the security of a sale price.”

Time has also been a factor. According to Vega, “Mexican avocados don't travel well and are not stored for more than 30 days; after that time, they suffer physiological disorders that affect their appearance. Shipping logistics to reach distant destinations often exceed that timeframe, and this has caused significant losses for exporters.”

The data confirms this scenario. Tomás de la Cuadra, a data analyst at Avobook, explains that between 2019 and 2021, Mexico shipped more than 2,500 containers annually to Europe, reaching a peak of nearly 2,800. However, the decline has been abrupt: “In 2022, it dropped to 780, in 2023 it recovered slightly to just over 1,000, but in 2024 it plummeted again to 250 containers. This year the trend is similar, with weeks registering barely one or no containers, whereas in 2021 there were weeks with more than 200,” he explains.

In Asia, the story is no different: Mexico exported more than 3,800 containers in 2021, of which more than 90% went to Japan. By 2025, that concentration will be even greater, with 98% of shipments destined for that country.

Furthermore, the volumes come in similar proportions from both Jalisco and Michoacán, reflecting the presence of both states in supplying this market. In contrast, China and Korea are registering minimal volumes this year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. market offers all the conditions Mexican producers and exporters are looking for: geographic proximity, lower logistical and financial risks, and almost unlimited growth potential. “Mexico prioritizes the U.S. because of its proximity, the very few quality complaints, and the significantly lower risk. Furthermore, it is an expanding market with double-digit growth, very different from other markets,” Villaseñor emphasizes.

Vega agrees that the United States, along with Canada and Central America, have become natural destinations. “Proximity and logistical services allow us to reach them in less than a week, representing a significant competitive advantage over other producers. Furthermore, these markets have adapted their marketing systems to the conditions sought by Mexican producer-exporters: weekly supply programs, firm purchase prices, payment terms of less than 30 days, and demand for all sizes and qualities produced in Mexico.”

The growth potential in the United States is, in fact, one of the biggest incentives. Vega recalls that in the late 1990s, this market was already consuming more than 200,000 tons per year, mostly supplied by California, but with insufficient production for much of the year. “Today, it is estimated that we will reach 1.5 million tons very soon. The consumption potential of the United States and Canada confirms the possibility of continued growth, while in Mexico the challenge will be to supply the growing domestic and international demand.”

However, the strategy of achieving market dominance is not without risks. Vega warns that “concentrating sales in a few markets poses a serious risk due to dependence and vulnerability to various factors: social, political, phytosanitary, and legal.” The challenge, he concludes, will be to find a balance that allows them to leverage the potential of the United States without completely neglecting long-haul markets.