As the date approaches when US President Donald Trump plans to announce a series of tariffs aimed at reducing dependence on foreign products and fulfilling his ambitious economic agenda (huffingtonpost.es), the avocado industry finds itself in a state of uncertainty. These tariffs could affect a variety of products, including automobiles, microchips, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products like avocados.

In response to the potential implementation of tariffs, Mexican avocado producers have increased their exports to the United States in the weeks leading up to the announcement. This strategy aims to secure a greater presence in the U.S. market before the new tariffs take effect, allowing U.S. importers to build up sufficient inventories to mitigate potential supply disruptions.

Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy has also generated concern in the broader economic sphere. According to reports in local newspapers, Mexico's Finance Minister, Edgar Amador Zamora, faces the challenge of adjusting economic policies in a context of economic slowdown and escalating US tariffs. Furthermore, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned various media outlets that the European Union has the capacity to "fight back" and has a "solid plan" to respond to the tariffs imposed by the United States.

Mexico sets the pace in the US avocado market

Sergio Paz, general manager of Coliman Avocados de México, explained that demand for Mexican avocados has remained stable, and highlighted that the accumulation of inventories by U.S. importers has been key to mitigating the effects of the uncertainty generated by the threat of tariffs. Paz mentioned that in week 12, Mexico exported 1,189 shipments of avocados to the United States. Although demand showed no signs of weakness, exports could have been higher had it not been for the holiday on Monday, March 17. Despite this minor setback, no notable weaknesses were recorded in the market, with the exception of size 48, which experienced some fluctuations in its movement, but was successfully sold by the weekend.

Paz also indicated that demand for smaller sizes, such as size 70, remained strong, especially among retailers who prefer to pack these sizes in reusable plastic crates (RPCs), which are displayed directly in stores. According to the Coliman manager, farm prices remained stable, and the supply of smaller fruit was supported by abundant field production. In this regard, he highlighted that this year, unlike previous seasons, a higher percentage of smaller sizes are being observed, while size 48, the most common in previous years, has had a relatively smaller presence.

If demand for these smaller gauges continues and larger sizes, such as gauge 60, remain well-supplied, Mexico should have no problem supplying the market, which would contribute to greater price stability. However, as the deadline for announcing measures approaches, uncertainty about the implementation of tariffs remains a concern, although Paz emphasized that both exporters and importers are now better prepared to deal with these potential tariffs.

The domestic market, on the other hand, has seen a price increase, especially for smaller sizes, which have risen by up to 70% in the last four weeks. This increase reflects the usual trend of higher prices before Easter, which this year will be celebrated between April 13th and 19th.

Resilience in times of uncertainty

Antonio Villaseñor, director of Aztecavo, added that last week Mexico harvested 29,733 tons of avocados, of which 23,128 tons were exported, representing a 77% yield. Although the numbers are encouraging, the season has been marked by uncertainty and challenges.

“Yesterday, approximately 3,500 tons that had remained in inventory from last week were shipped, demonstrating the sector's efficiency. Through week 12, 896,745 tons were harvested, with 767,523 tons exported, representing an 86% yield for the entire season,” Villaseñor explained.

According to Villaseñor, the industry is on tenterhooks awaiting President Trump's decision regarding tariffs on avocado imports from Mexico to the United States. This is why a strong harvest of over 30,000 tons is expected this week. Producers' strategy is to build up inventories to cope with the uncertainty of the announcement. The area available for harvest is 42,793 hectares, virtually the same as last week.

For his part, Tomás de la Cuadra, data analyst at Avobook, provided a detailed analysis of avocado export trends from Mexico in recent weeks. According to his analysis, week 10 saw a significant drop in shipments, reaching only 35.5 million pounds. However, the situation improved the following week, rebounding to 50 million pounds, and by week 13, shipments had increased by more than 20%, reaching 62 million pounds. This export volume had not been seen since week 4. Meanwhile, California also experienced a 45% increase, contributing 11 million pounds in week 13.

De la Cuadra emphasized that this increase in Mexican exports aligns with analysts' predictions, who anticipated this sharp rise to address the uncertainty generated by the potential tariff announcement. This surge in exports reflects producers' strategy to secure a stronger presence in the U.S. market before the new tariffs are implemented.