With weeks of high shipments already underway and the expectation of a prolonged shipping period, the 2025 Peruvian avocado season is generating intense debate within the sector. In addition to the usual market uncertainty, this year there are climatic factors, aggressive commercial strategies, and risks of saturation in key destinations. Will the industry be able to manage the balance between supply and demand without destabilizing prices?

Unlike previous seasons, where the highest export volume was concentrated in just a few weeks, this year's trend appears to be different. Víctor Ruete, Advisor at Tropical Millenium (Baika), notes that "the export period, defined as the time when more than 1,000 containers are exported per week, began around week 15. If the current pace continues, and considering the production areas that are reaching their optimal dry matter content, it wouldn't be surprising if this intensity extends until week 32." However, he cautions that logistical management and market availability will be key to preventing a saturation that could negatively impact prices.

From Montosa in Peru, Iván Alonso Tamayo provides a specific figure: "I think we could be at levels of 1,300-1,400 containers until week 27-28." Although he acknowledges the difficulty of quantifying it precisely, his estimate confirms that the current volume exceeds last year's records, where the highest volume was concentrated in weeks 24 and 25.

Meanwhile, Alfredo Lira Chirif, executive director of AgroLeal, maintains that "the supposed peak volume period is being extended for more weeks of harvesting, aided by the cold weather we're having. I don't think there will be a large volume going forward, given how our sales team is performing and because there's less volume than expected." His perspective suggests a longer period, but with less risk of immediate oversupply.

These estimates are complemented by the analysis of Tomás de la Cuadra, Data Analyst at Avobook, who highlights that "according to ProHass projections, June will see one or more weeks with more than 1,500 shipments in total, indicating that June will be the month with the highest volume." He further details that "more than 850 shipments to Europe are projected in a couple of weeks, not necessarily consecutive, but significant nonetheless." De la Cuadra emphasizes that the main markets—the United States, Europe, and the rest of the Americas—will account for the largest share of Peruvian avocado imports during June, while Asia is expected to maintain a more stable performance.

Diversifying destinations to alleviate European pressure

One of the season's biggest challenges is the efficient distribution of the harvested volumes. Traditionally, Europe has absorbed a significant portion of Peruvian exports. However, companies are seeking alternatives. "There is a clear intention within the industry to diversify destinations, trying to reduce dependence on the European market," explains Ruete, who emphasizes that "if conditions in other markets don't allow for efficient absorption and the fruit is ready to harvest, Europe is likely to remain a significant outlet."

For his part, Lira highlights his company's diversification efforts: "Our sales representatives from Peruvian exporters are doing a great job sending more volumes to other destinations such as North America and Asia, and new destinations like Argentina and Morocco."

Regarding the specific situation in Europe, Alonso Tamayo is less optimistic: "I doubt Europe will maintain 800-900 containers per week; it needs to decrease." This adjustment could be key to balancing supply and preventing excessive pressure on prices in Europe.

Regarding when the pace of exports will begin to slow, there is a consensus that the curve will start to decline toward the end of July or the beginning of August. "The expectation is that the volume of exports will begin to decrease from the beginning of August," says Ruete, while Alonso Tamayo estimates a decline starting in weeks 30-31. Similarly, Lira projects that "the first week of August" would mark the beginning of the reduction.

The increase in volume has had a direct effect on market prices. "Prices are already reaching low levels, around €6 per box on the spot market, which represents a difficult threshold for many players in the supply chain to sustain," warns Ruete. He adds that batches with quality problems or prolonged periods in inventory could even be traded at lower prices, which would be worrying.

Alonso Tamayo agrees that the pressure on prices could increase: "With the week 21-22 shipments of more than 800 and 900 containers, we believe that prices will fall even further."

For his part, Lira is somewhat more optimistic thanks to the commercial strategy adopted: "I don't think the drop will be much more pronounced than it has been so far; a great commercial job is being done with new destinations and extending the campaign thanks to the weather as well."

De la Cuadra, for his part, prefers to emphasize the analysis from the volume rather than from the prices: "In 2022 and 2023 the lowest price of the year was observed between weeks 23 and 25 for size 18. In 2024, however, there were no major price drops in the European market, which was in line with the lower Peruvian supply during that season."

This is how Peru faces 2025 with a prolonged export season, an active effort to diversify markets, and a price environment under pressure. How exporters manage their shipments in the coming weeks will be crucial to the outcome of the season and its impact on both revenue and the planning of future seasons.