Avobook spoke with Juan Carlos Paredes, president of ProHass in Peru, who explained the meteorological and agronomic factors that interrupted the upward trend of previous years. However, he predicted that they will recover ground in 2025.

It is a fact that the total volume of avocados shipped by Peru to the global market will be lower than in 2023, when this season concludes. This decline marks a change from the upward trend seen in previous years, but it should begin to recover in the 2025 harvest.

This is according to Juan Carlos Paredes, who is in his fourth year as president of ProHass, an association that brings together the 75 main avocado exporters of that country and who is very clear about the conditions that the Peruvian fruit has had to face, whose main destination is the European market.

Regarding the projected decrease in volume for the end of this year, Paredes states that the industry's projection is 16% less.

“The season will yield a total of 550,000 to 560,000 tons in shipments to all markets. But we were coming from a growth curve of 15%, as the planted hectares increased,” he explains.

The main reason for this decline lies primarily in climatic factors and, to a lesser extent, some agronomic aspects associated with the maturation of the trees.

According to Paredes, “there were areas with 4 degrees of heat above normal, at times when the fruit had to set and the tree should have been strong, with sugars, energy, but it ended up with less fruit and it wasn't enough to make the push,” he explains.

Regarding agronomic factors, the president of ProHass warns that the behavior in the performance of the trees is currently being observed, six or seven years after they have been planted, where experience shows that this is the moment when "the tree shows the successes, but also the mistakes made in the first years."

However, the Peruvian exporters' association projects that the next production should recover some of the ground lost, considering that the weather conditions have been more favorable.

“This year the weather is normal. But we are learning that some things are no longer the same: the El Niño phenomenon, which used to occur every 14 years and we even factored it into our cash flow projections, now occurs every two or three years. Sometimes even every year,” says Juan Carlos Paredes.

For this reason, agro-export companies have learned to monitor the crop "as if it were a patient in the ICU."

“If it doesn’t want to eat, we don’t feed it. We are moving further and further away from forest management, towards more specific tree management,” explains the president of the avocado growers of Peru.

Crop yields in coastal and highland areas

Regarding the yield of the growing areas for the next season, the projection for the Peruvian Highlands is that the volume should be higher because, according to Paredes, “the plants have had more rest. It will also be a good year for coastal Peru, so we see a very promising outlook.”

Peru has more than 200 avocado exporters interacting in the global market in 2024. Some combine their avocado shipments with chili peppers or ginger, and the diversity in volume is wide, as there are companies that send two containers and others that can reach 4,000.

Prohass has 75 members. The association is working to create its own brand that will offer recipients some assurance regarding the product handled by the organization's members.

“More than a guarantee of quality, it’s a condition that will allow buyers to know that our fruit comes from producers and packing facilities that comply with regulations and have a solid technical foundation. This sets us apart from exporters who ship with very low dry matter content, for example,” explains the trade association leader.

Spain has become a good market for Peru, supplying it to meet demand in March and April, when the country does not have its own fruit.

Both in that country and in France, Peruvian produce is highly rated. Paredes points out that “our fruit has earned a very good reputation in terms of quality. The fruit ripens well and consumers like it.”