Brazilian exports continue to decline: shipments fall 27% and are redirected to Mercosur

Avocado exports from Brazil continue their downward trend, falling further and further from the volumes seen during their busiest weeks. At the close of week 18, the South American country shipped just 22 containers, a stark contrast to the nearly 100 containers per week recorded during peak periods, such as weeks 13 and 14.

This decline represents a 56% drop compared to the same week last year and aligns with the trend observed in recent weeks. If this trend continues, it is unlikely that Brazil will surpass its total export volume in 2024, marking a setback compared to the previous year.

Beyond the drop in volume, a change in the geographical distribution of destinations is also observed. While Europe was the main destination for Brazilian shipments so far this year—receiving nearly three-quarters of total exports—in week 18 the trend reversed: 60% of shipments went to Mercosur countries, while Europe received 40%.

However, this preference for Mercosur doesn't appear to be enough to offset the sharp drop in overall volume. Brazilian fruit is traveling less, and when it does, it mostly stays within the region. Despite this adjustment in destination strategy, Brazil's export outlook remains limited, and if there isn't a recovery in the coming weeks, it will close the season below 2024 levels.

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