“We are in a campaign that began in July 2025 and will end in June 2026, which will be a record-breaking campaign for Mexican avocados. We have the highest production in many years; we estimate that 1,130,000 tons will be exported throughout the campaign, just to the United States. This is the largest volume Mexico has ever exported. Within this campaign, we have ample availability of very good sizes, with consistent quality throughout the entire season,” commented Ramón Paz Vega, an avocado producer from the states of Michoacán and Jalisco and strategic advisor to the Mexican Avocado Importers Association in the United States.

This conversation with Avobook takes place at a pivotal moment in the season, as it is the week before the time when the most avocados are consumed, within the largest avocado market in the world: the final of American football in the United States.

- What are the projected volumes and prices in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl?

“Starting in early January, shipments are being made to build up inventories for that date. It's normally a four-week supply. From the second week of the year, we estimate that between 127,000 and 140,000 tons will be exported over those four weeks, almost all of which is consumed during the weekend of the game. That's equivalent to loading a 20-ton truck every five or six minutes, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. That's the level of activity we're experiencing.”

- What are you doing to ensure that all that volume is consumed according to projections?

“Now we're launching a very interesting promotional campaign. This year we don't have an advertisement during the match itself, but we've developed a very engaging digital campaign, featuring a guru who will simulate predicting the game's outcome, with whom people can interact. So, there's a significant promotional boost coming for that day. Furthermore, there's another objective: to ensure that demand doesn't drop afterward, once this period ends. Previously, we experienced peak demand on match day, and then, once it was over, demand plummeted. In recent years, thanks to these promotional efforts, demand has remained high.”

- What will be communicated to people to prevent a drop in demand after the Super Bowl?

“Over the last four or five years, we've managed to prevent that post-game drop in demand, regardless of whether there's an ad during the event or not. Because digital marketing is so strong now, it heavily engages consumers in games on social media. With so much interactivity, many different consumption patterns are promoted. Then there's the partnership with major American supermarkets, which run in-store promotions. This is what we call the shopper program, with dedicated shelves and special offers. All of this helps the momentum generated by the Super Bowl continue in the following days. Often, people buy a little more than they need for the game. If there's something on offer at restaurants, they continue to offer it for a week or two afterward, and all of this helps us level the playing field. Our forecast is that if there is a decrease, it will be minimal.”

- Do you think this will be an opportunity to improve prices, which have remained low this season with little difference between sizes?

“What we’re seeing now is some price strengthening, but it’s very relative, very small. In years with high production like this one, the Super Bowl campaigns usually allow us to ship a large volume, but without price increases. When we have lower volume, prices do increase around this time. They then continue to rise for the rest of the season, but we’re not seeing that now.”

- Won't the increased supply of fruit be accompanied by a proportional increase in consumption and a consequent positive impact on prices?

“Avocados are a product with inelastic demand. People who consume a large quantity, even if the fruit is half price, aren't going to eat twice as much. So, it's not easy to push a much larger volume, like what we have now. Sometimes you have to reduce prices significantly. The other factor that influences this is the issue of the large chains' profit margins. Supermarkets have wide margins on their sales, gross margins, because their net margins are very small. The consumer price doesn't reflect the drop in wholesale prices. They remain a bit higher anyway. I think those two factors affect prices somewhat and keep producers dissatisfied.”

- That's in the short term. But is there anything positive in the long-term view?

“Of course. One of the great advantages of having a large volume and affordable prices is that it allows us to increase consumption. To this price, we must add all the promotional campaigns we have, the quality we're offering—high-quality fruit, very good sizes (48 and 60) which are the most in demand in the United States market. All of this allows us to consolidate or increase consumption and, in a way, it's an investment for the future.”