In this continent, the demand for avocados continues to grow, and the large number of supplier countries will continue to provide a variety of sizes and meet the demand. But to what extent can this diversity coexist?

The European avocado market has two main characteristics: first, it's growing. At a slow pace, but it is growing. And second, it's supplied by multiple origins. Peru leads the way, accounting for around 40% of the fruit traded on the continent. Below Peru, the other exporters are experiencing a period where the growth of some influences the business decisions of others.

Given this situation, several questions arise to understand what is happening in this market: Is there a balance between the growth in consumption and the supply of avocados from different origins in Europe? Can so many origins continue to coexist in a consumer market that is growing by no more than 10% annually?

“AvoMagazine” posed these questions to two experts in the avocado business in Europe: the experienced Víctor Ruete, advisor to Tropical Millenium, a company belonging to Baika; and Fabrice de Jonge, former executive of the Dutch company Groot Fresh Group, who now owns his own importer, Exoticals.

Both agree that the growth potential is very large and, therefore, the conditions are right for a scenario with multiple suppliers.

“Europe still presents great potential for growth in avocado consumption. Currently, annual per capita consumption in the region is estimated at just over 1 kilo, while in the United States it reaches nearly 4 kilos per year. Furthermore, it is important to consider that there are countries with high demand potential that are not part of the 27 members of the European Union or the United Kingdom. This indicates that supply can continue to expand to meet a demand that still has room to grow,” comments Víctor Ruete.

Of course, the dynamics of this evolution are not uniform across the continent. There are regions, such as Eastern Europe, that are driving this increase. Fabrice de Jonge explains this by pointing out that the upward curve is not as steep as in previous years, when it hovered around 13% annually. Now that figure is lower, averaging 10%, but with some areas standing out more than others.

“For example, there is growing demand in Poland, which is experiencing an increase in its purchasing power. We see considerable demand in Scandinavia, Spain, and France, due to the consumption in kilograms per capita. We also see considerable demand in the United Kingdom and Germany, due to the size of the countries,” he explains.

The impact of emerging suppliers

Another crucial difference with the United States lies in the number and size of supplier countries. In the US, approximately 85% of avocados come from Mexico, while in Europe, multiple countries are suppliers.

“Many of these exporting countries share production seasons, which makes them more or less competitive depending on seasonality and their ability to diversify their supply. Peru, for example, represents about 40% of the European market, while the rest is divided among at least ten different origins. In this context, each country's strategy for positioning its fruit is key in a highly competitive environment,” warns the advisor from Tropical Millenium.

That is where you can detect the great quality that is currently appreciated in Europe: the dynamic movements in market share.

“The avocado industry is highly influenced by climatic factors that significantly impact production, so each season presents variations in supply. However, growth in production and participation from new origins has been observed. One example is Colombia, which has managed to position itself as the world's third-largest exporter of Hass avocados, closely followed by emerging countries like Morocco and Kenya. In addition, new players such as Brazil, Tanzania, Mozambique, Guatemala, and Ecuador are increasing their market presence. With the constant addition of new hectares to production, it is expected that the dynamics of market share will continue to evolve in the coming years,” explains Víctor Ruete.

In fact, the end of 2024 showed some signs of this trend. One of them was the surge from Morocco, which entered the market with considerable force, both in volume and quality, extending its campaign—at least—until the end of February.

The evolution of their harvests could influence the commercial decisions of other origins. In fact, Víctor Ruete says that “Morocco’s entry into the European market has been significant and has impacted the supply from other origins, such as late-season fruit from Chile, early production from Peru, and especially suppliers from the Mediterranean. Most Moroccan orchards are still young, meaning that many hectares are in the development phase and have not yet reached full productive maturity.”

In his opinion, in the short term, this new condition represents a challenge for other producers such as Israel, Spain and Portugal, who will have to adapt to greater competition in the winter season, traditionally more restricted in supply.

Fabrice de Jonge agrees with this view, as Morocco has another advantage: the price is lower because they don't have as strong a domestic market as Chile, and it's growing significantly. "I estimate that this year they had a growth of almost 50% compared to last year, going from 60,000 tons to approximately 90,000," de Jonge explains.

“Looking ahead, Morocco’s continued growth could further alter market dynamics,” says Ruete.

Diverse calibers as strategic keys

Another characteristic the European avocado market is demonstrating is the demand for different sizes, depending on the type of buyer and the destination countries. For this reason, Fabrice de Jonge firmly believes that different origins can coexist within the region, because a determining factor in the success of any origin is having the appropriate volume and sizes, depending on the time of year and the country demanding the fruit.

“Returning to the example of Morocco, it’s important to consider that their growth is focused on large-sized fruit. They don’t have small ones. That’s why we’re currently (mid-February) experiencing significant pressure in the market for sizes 12, 14, and 16. This is why we need to source fruit from other origins. For example, I source from Colombia, which has sizes from 20 to 32. That’s the advantage of having multiple origins, because each local market demands different fruit,” he explains.

De Jonge points out that the most in-demand sizes in Europe will continue to be between 16 and 22, generally speaking. But, “while a size like 18-20 can be sold in several countries, it's not the same everywhere: here in the Netherlands, we don't eat a large size like 12-14. That fruit is more for southern Europe, like Spain and Italy. Smaller sizes are more in demand in northern Europe, like Scandinavia,” he explains.

Challenges: logistics and travel times

Local production volumes (Mediterranean and European) are insufficient to meet demand. Therefore, supplies from Peru, Colombia, Chile, and other Latin American origins are essential. But so too are South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, and other parts of Africa, which have identified opportunities, albeit not without challenges.

“Quality is a key factor in the avocado trade, especially for overseas fruit, which requires rigorous logistical handling. In recent years, logistical problems have significantly affected the industry, with challenges such as lack of space on ships, container shortages, port congestion, and longer-than-usual transit times,” warns Víctor Ruete.

He adds: “This is compounded by logistical difficulties in the countries of origin, as well as limitations in local processing and transportation capacity. These factors not only affect the quality of the final product, but also impact demand and, consequently, market prices. In this sense, logistical efficiency will continue to be a critical aspect to ensure the competitiveness of the various origins.”

Factors such as weather could continue to influence supply dynamics. Therefore, Víctor Ruete's advice is so important: "The industry must remain attentive to market developments in order to adjust marketing strategies accordingly."