As the year draws to a close, Europe enters a crucial phase for Hass avocado supply. Three origins—Spain, Israel, and Colombia—will set the market pace during the first months of 2026, with projections showing growth, adjustments, and unique challenges for each country. The combination of these supply flows will determine competition for the most sought-after sizes, especially 20, 22, and 24, which are the preferred choices of European buyers.

Spain: a record harvest that adapts to the climate

According to Charles Auberge, commercial manager of Soly Import, Spain is projecting an exceptional harvest. Around 100,000 tons are anticipated, a figure he describes as a "record" that positions the country as a key player from January through March or even April, when the largest flow of shipments to European distribution centers is expected.

Avobook's data team analysis qualifies this scenario, noting that last season Spain delivered the equivalent of 3,524 containers to the European market. While the exact number for this season is not yet finalized, a higher volume is expected thanks to the increased harvest already being recorded in the first few weeks.

From the perspective of Natalia Moranth, Commercial Director of Montana Fruits Colombia, Spain's harvest is starting slower due to the weather, but it has greater export potential than last year. Between weeks 1 and 3, its volumes could exceed previous figures by 10% to 20%, reaching their peak between weeks 2 and 4, once the harvest has normalized after the rains. Furthermore, the European origin will contribute a significant proportion of large sizes, especially 14-20, which will strengthen its competitiveness in a market that values larger fruit.

Israel and Colombia: Between limitations, expansion and new trade challenges

While Spain is heading for a year of increased production, Israel is expected to face a moderate decrease in its volumes. According to Avobook, the previous season ended with 3,832 containers exported, but current projections place the flow at 3,676, equivalent to a 4 percent drop. Auberge agrees that Israel will have a significant volume, although he warns that the country faces “many difficulties,” which could affect the consistency of shipments.

Moranth's perspective complements this scenario: Israel is already operating above its historical average and has more fruit available than in 2024, so it will maintain a high flow from January onwards. Its peak is expected between weeks 2 and 3, continuing until week 6. In terms of sizes, Israel will primarily focus on sizes 16–20, with a greater presence of size 22 and greenskin heading to Eastern Europe, a market where it traditionally maintains influence.

Colombia, on the other hand, is heading into an expansion season. Avobook's data team projects 3,098 containers for this cycle, compared to 2,834 in the previous season, representing a 9 percent increase. The Andean country will maintain a strong flow until the end of January, driven by harvests that extend from mid-December to the end of that month.

Moranth explains that Colombia remains stable at around 650,000 boxes per week, a figure significantly higher than in previous seasons, although without significant additional growth at the start of 2026. Unlike the 2024–2025 cycle, much of the volume is no longer being shipped to the United States due to the low prices offered by Mexico, which will intensify Colombia's presence in Europe. The predominant sizes will be 18–22, accompanied by a significant contribution of smaller sizes (24–32), which will require a careful strategy to avoid saturation in a market sensitive to smaller sizes.

The sizes and strategies that will define the competition

The European market's commercial structure will continue to focus on 20, 22, and 24 gauge shotguns, the most sought-after for their balance between size and performance. Auberge emphasizes that these gauges will be the main contributors from Spain, Israel, and Colombia, although the analysis by origin becomes more complex with the nuances shared by Moranth.

Spain and Israel will dominate the larger calibers (14–20), while Colombia will need to optimize its shipments of 18–22 calibers and carefully manage the flow of smaller calibers. Market segmentation becomes key: Spain will absorb some of its own production, Israel will maintain its strength in Eastern Europe, and Colombia will need to reinforce its presence in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia.

During January, Europe will be highly sensitive to variations in dry matter content and chilling injury, making fruit consistency and stability crucial. Capitalizing on weeks 1 and 2—when Spain has not yet reached its peak and the Mediterranean region remains constrained by weather conditions—presents a strategic opportunity for competing origins.

Although on a smaller scale, Morocco is also on the map. This season it will export between 50% and 70% less than in 2024 due to rains that have affected its harvest, reducing its relative impact but putting less pressure on the overall supply balance.

With Spain entering the market strongly, Israel adjusting to its production reality, and Colombia consolidating an increase in volume, the European market is preparing for a start to the year with relative abundance, close competition, and the growing importance of logistics in an environment where each week can reshape the price curve.

The progress of the harvests in these first weeks and the evolution of exports will ultimately confirm whether 2026 will be a season of pressure on prices or of equilibrium between European demand and a robust and diverse supply.