The Avobook Week 32 Report projects a possible shortage in Europe, which could open opportunities for other origins, while in the United States, Peru has very stable volumes behind Mexico, which is recovering its market share.

The numbers from the Avobook Report for Week 32 show several interesting findings from the global avocado market.

The US market has seen a recovery in shipments from Mexico, reaching 27 million pounds, giving it a 49% market share. This increase represents a 9% rise in volume of Mexican fruit compared to the previous week and a 35% increase compared to the same week last year.

Peru remains a fairly stable presence, controlling a quarter of the market and holding steady at 14.5 million pounds over the last three weeks. The decline in Californian and Colombian fruit has been noticeable.

Field prices in Michoacán have increased by 14% in the "Flor Loca" harvest, going from 3.19 USD/KG in week 31 to 3.69 USD/KG in week 32.

Europe: Chile is slowly entering the scene

Europe has received 10% fewer containers of avocados this week, totaling 704, which is 29% less than the same week in 2023. 90% of these volumes come from Peru, which is beginning to reduce its shipments.

Although more than 600 containers are expected from that country by week 33, shipments will decrease to 463 containers the following week and will continue to decline until around week 45, when Peru is expected to be shipping less than 10 containers per week.

This decline will coincide with an increase in shipments from Chile, although Chilean volumes are not expected to reach the levels of Peruvian shipments. However, Israel will join in with shipments starting in October to help supplement supply and stabilize a potential shortage that could arise from the end of August.

In week 32, Chile shipped 9 containers that will arrive in week 36. The curve of Chilean shipments is expected to increase rapidly in the coming weeks, going from 2 containers in week 35, to 60 or 80 in the following weeks.

In Dutch ports, prices have remained stable for the past three weeks, despite limited supply. However, in Spain, prices have fallen by almost 20% for the largest sizes (20 gauge), although this decrease is seen across all sizes.

China: Prices stable despite low volume

China remains dominated by Peruvian shipments, although these are gradually decreasing. Twenty-one containers arrived this week, and eight containers are expected from Chile in week 36, which will begin to offset the decline in Peruvian fruit exports.

Mexico will also begin shipping fruit soon, which will help balance supply, in a market where avocado prices have stabilized, remaining at levels very similar to last week. This price stability is observed despite the downward trend in total volume.

Chile is gradually growing in the domestic and international markets

In Chile, avocado imports have decreased by 25% due to increased local production. Prices for Chilean and Peruvian avocados have fallen in the local market. As an exporter, Chile shipped 21 containers during week 32, with 9 going to Europe, 8 to Asia, 3 to the United States, and 1 to other Latin American destinations. These figures are expected to increase in the coming weeks, solidifying Chile's position as a growing player in the market.

The Avobook Report for Week 32 highlights these dynamics and projects an interesting shift between Peru and Chile, which - although still slow - is expected to see stronger activity in the coming weeks.

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