The European Hass avocado market is experiencing a period of tight supply during the winter, a scenario that limits the possibility of a significant price drop in the short term. This is the view expressed in the latest column by Gabriel Katkovcin, Sourcing Manager at TITBIT sro, who warns that the real turning point will only arrive with the entry of larger volumes from Peru, expected in the second half of March.

During February and early March, Europe relies primarily on Israel, Spain, Colombia, Morocco, and Chile, a combination that is expected to remain relatively stable during weeks 5 to 7. However, supply growth will be gradual. Spain and Israel are slowly increasing their shipments, although recent weather problems are limiting overall availability. Meanwhile, Colombia's 2026 production forecast is weaker than expected, and after a brief peak, its exports to Europe are likely to decline, even though the European market remains attractive for this origin.

Chile, meanwhile, is in the final phase of its season, with lower shipments expected for February, partly because some volumes are being redirected to Latin America and Asia. Morocco is gaining importance within the European Union, especially in markets like Germany, but its growth would not be enough to fully offset the decline in Spain and Chile.

The market's attention is focused on Peru. According to Katkovcin, "traders are very focused on potential delays in the Peruvian harvest," which has led to conservative volume planning for February. The experience of 2025, marked by a strong production expansion and a subsequent price war in Europe, has generated greater caution among Peruvian exporters regarding the timing and distribution of their shipments.

Europe will remain the primary destination for Peruvian Hass avocados, and further growth in total exports is expected. However, the greatest risk of oversupply is expected in March and April, when coastal regions reach peak production.

Firm prices and pressure for small sizes

On the market front, recent data shows a differentiated price adjustment by size. Large and medium sizes have seen slight decreases, while small sizes, especially 30/32, have become more expensive, narrowing the historical price gap between sizes. This situation is due to the shortage of small fruit in Europe and could continue for another two or three weeks.

“Until heavier volumes arrive from Peru, prices will likely move sideways or remain slightly firm,” Katkovcin notes, particularly for good-quality Hass in sizes 20-24 and 30-32. Even if Spain and Morocco increase shipments in the next 15 days, the effect would be a moderate relief rather than a sharp drop in prices.

For the next four weeks, arrivals to Europe are expected to remain around 600–650 shipments per week, with more noticeable growth once Peru increases its exports in March. Sizes 16–18 could see some downward pressure if Spain and Morocco increase their volumes, while the most in-demand sizes should maintain firm prices.

Among the main risks, Katkovcin identifies two opposing scenarios: an early arrival of large Peruvian volumes at the end of February, which could quickly weaken prices, or new climatic and logistical disruptions in Spain, Israel or Morocco, capable of pushing prices upward in the short term.

Looking ahead to February, the recommendation is clear: do not expect a significant price drop, trade with tactical spot purchases when opportunities arise from Spain, Morocco, Israel or Colombia, avoid overexposure in expensive small sizes and closely monitor signals that confirm the effective start of large-scale Peruvian shipments.